It’s a New Year, But Questions Remain About the Padres Roster

Apr 11, 2013; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres right fielder Will Venable (left) and left fielder Carlos Quentin (center) and center fielder Cameron Maybin (right) wait to run onto the field before a game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at PETCO Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

TOO MANY OUTFIELDERS

The first, and perhaps most obvious, concern for the Padres is the glut of outfielders the team is currently carrying. After adding Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers in one memorable week in December, the team had seven experienced outfielders, not to mention a few other players who manned the outfield for last year’s squad. While Preller has already begun to address this problem, trading Seth Smith to the Seattle Mariners for swingman pitcher Brandon Maurer this week, there is still work to be done.

Carlos Quentin, who was the Padres’ primary power threat the past three years, despite missing 268 games to injury, may be the biggest problem Preller faces. Quentin is due $8 million this year, his wobbly knees make him nearly useless as an outfielder, and there are only ten games in which the Padres will be using a Designated Hitter this year. Quentin’s 2014 line of 50 games played, 4 homers, 18 RBI, and a .177 batting average do not make him an attractive target in trades. But his history as a run-producer could have some power-hungry teams looking for an inexpensive fix. If the Padres are willing to pay most of his salary, they just might find an AL team to take Quentin off their hands. But the more likely outcome is that Quentin will only be a drain on the payroll this season.

Defensively, Cameron Maybin and Will Venable are the Padres’ best options to play center field. But that isn’t going to happen much with the newcomer Myers scheduled to man center field. Maybin is now an expensive fourth outfielder option, with two years remaining on his 5-year, $25 million contract, which seemed like a bargain at the time of the signing. He is scheduled to earn $7 million this year. Venable is a cheaper option, but doesn’t cover quite as much ground as Maybin. Neither is a strong option off the bench.

Abraham Almonte, Alexi Amarista, Tommy Medica, Jake Goebbert, Rymer Liriano, and Cory Spangenberg all tried to help ease  the outfield’s woes last year. Almonte and Liriano seem the most likely to see any time there this season. But their hopes are largely dependent on the Padres’ ability to move some of the pricier talent to free up a little room.

Aug 10, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; San Diego Padres first baseman Yonder Alonso (23) and shortstop Alexi Amarista (5) react after Alonso drove in Amarista with a sacrifice fly against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the seventh inning at PNC Park. San Diego won 8-2. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

INFIELD ISSUES

While the Padres added some star power to their outfield, the infield overhaul hasn’t been nearly as exciting, and may not be finished. The current mix includes Yonder Alonso and perhaps Tommy Medica at first base, Jedd Gyorko at second, Alexi Amarista and Clint Barmes at short, and Yangervis Solarte and Will Middlebrooks at third.

Only Gyorko, at 26 years old and coming into the second year of his 5-year contract, seems a lock to start. And we may see a battle for third base between Solarte and Middlebrooks. Of course, any predictions while A.J. Preller is at the helm could blow up with another blockbuster trade this week. But for now, that seems to be the case at second and third. At first base and shortstop , more interesting decisions remain to be made.

First baseman Alonso put up disappointing numbers last year, slashing .240/.285/.397, after hitting in the .280 range with good OBP numbers the two previous years. At a position that is counted on to put up big offensive numbers, Alonso has never hit more than 9 homers in a season, nor driven in more than 62 runs. The line-drive hitter needs to get his average up in the .300 range to be a real contributor to the offense, and while he occasionally goes on tears where he ropes doubles off the wall for a week or two, he hasn’t shown the consistency to hold down the first base position on a team with World Series aspirations. But with the only other real option being Medica, who has light-tower power but goes through long dry spells, the Padres may still be on the lookout for a more solid option at first.

Shortstop is interesting. Amarista has been a backup for his entire career, and is not much of a hitter. The general perception among Padres fans is that he not good enough to be a starter. But at the position where defensive prowess is valued much more than offensive skills, Amarista has an above-average glove. New addition Barmes is also above average on D.  Neither will get on base as much as 30% of the time, so both will need to hit at the bottom of the order. With no decent shortstop remaining on the free agent list, will the Padres consider making an upgrade via trade?

The shortstop conundrum leads us nicely into our next area of concern: Defense.

Apr 27, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp (27) drops a fly ball of the bat of Colorado Rockies second baseman Josh Rutledge (14) in the eighth inning at Dodger Stadium. Kemp was charged with an error on the play. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

DEFENSE

So we’ve got some bats now. Kemp, Upton, Myers, and catcher Derek Norris will shore up the middle of the order. The Padres should put quite a few more runs on the board this year. But chances are they’ll be giving up a few more runs, too, because now the defense stinks.

All of the new outfielders are below average defensively, based on their range factor. Kemp and Upton are below average at the corner outfield spots they will play this year, and Myers had a below average range factor as a corner outfielder, and now he is being asked to cover center field in spacious Petco Park. With Kemp’s range, it’s astonishing that the Dodgers put him in center field for 41 games last year. His R/F per game in center was 1.85, while the league average was 2.48. That means one extra gapper every two games dropped in for a hit. The Padres’ outfield coverage is going to be bad. Gone are the days when we see Maybin and Venable converging on a ball in right-center. Those balls are going to be triples now.

At catcher, we see additional offensive upgrades in Norris and Tim Federowicz. But projected starter Norris is below average at both pitch framing and throwing out baserunners (22% caught stealing rate). Federowicz also represents a drop-off from last year’s Padres in the ability to steal strikes, but at least he can gun down a few baserunners, with a 37% success rate.

I’m not going to claim to know how good a game these two can call, but last year’s top starters, Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross, showed a distinct preference to throw to Rene Rivera instead of Yasmani Grandal. And with both of those players gone, there is going to be an adjustment period while the staff begins throwing to two new catchers.

At second base, while Gyorko is improving, he remains below average.

The shortstop combo of Amarista and Barmes is the only position up the middle of the diamond that is above average. The Padres have already taken defensive hits at catcher and center field, and finding a stronger option on offense at shortstop at the expense of defense would potentially make the Padres the worst defensive team in the majors. Defense must remain the priority at shortstop.

Hang on, Padres fans. While we’ll have plenty more to cheer about when the team is hitting, get ready for a few more frustrated screams when the team is in the field.

Sep 23, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels (35) delivers a pitch during the sixth inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Ballpark. The Marlins won 2-0. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

THE STARTING ROTATION

With all the changes the Padres made in December, one item that was barely touched was the starting rotation. The Padres had one of the best pitching staffs in baseball last year, and they have managed to retain their top three starters while making significant upgrades to their offense.

Only Jesse Hahn, who was sent to the A’s in the trade for Derek Norris, and fifth starter Eric Stults, who elected free agency after being designated for assignment, are gone from last year’s rotation. The troika of Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross, and Ian Kennedy are still planning to accompany the Padres on their trip to the postseason this year. But the final two positions remain to be determined.

And it’s unclear at this point whether those final two positions will be the number four and five positions in the rotation, or perhaps something more exciting.

The most recent large-scale rumor had the Padres potentially trading Wil Myers to the Phillies for staff ace and Rancho Bernardo native Cole Hamels. While that rumor hasn’t maintained traction over the last week, it does show that Preller may not be content merely to fill in the back of the rotation; he may be looking to bring in another top starter, which would give the Padres one of the most formidable rotations in baseball.

Other options to fill the final two spots include Josh Johnson, Odrisamer Despaigne, Matt Wisler, Robbie Erlin, and newcomer Brandon Morrow.

Peter Seidler, Ron Fowler, A.J. Preller, and Mike Dee. Mandatory Credit: Friarwire (padres.mlbogs.com)

$$$

The remaining moves to finalize the Padres roster are, of course, dependent on the money. As Lin points out, Preller has done a remarkable job of overhauling the team without skyrocketing the payroll. In fact, the total salaries of the current roster are within a few million dollars of last year’s payroll.

Kemp and Upton are the only players on the current roster who will earn over $10 million in 2015. And $18 million of Kemp’s $21 million salary will be paid for, ever so thoughtfully, by the Dodgers, leaving Upton’s $14.5 million as the largest expense on the budget.

The other higher-priced players include Joaquin Benoit ($8 million), Quentin ($8 million), Maybin ($7 million), Cory Luebke ($5.25 million – ouch!), and Venable ($4.25 million). Nobody else currently signed will earn over $2.5 million. A handful of players, though, including the top three starters, Alonso, and Amarista, are all arbitration-eligible, with Kennedy likely earning about $10 million, Cashner and Ross in the 5 or 6 million range, and Alonso and Amarista unlikely to cost more than $4 million between them.

In a few short months, Preller has shown a talent in putting together a cost-effective roster. Myers will be under team control for another five years. Norris is not eligible for free agency until 2019. These two could very well form the nucleus of the Padres’ roster for the rest of the 2010’s.

But the ownership’s willingness to let Preller continue to play around with options like Cole Hamels, or whatever other top-level talent he’s currently concocting trade scenarios for, will have a limit. They have stated that they are willing to increase the payroll from last year, and, as of today, there’s likely only a very small increase over last year’s total.

The owners have to be delighted with what Preller has accomplished this year, and, at least publicly, they haven’t set a limit on the 2015 payroll budget. So two scenarios seem possible. One, there is a dollar amount that Preller must adhere to in creating his Padres dream team, and two, that the owners will let Preller accomplish everything, or nearly everything, that he wants to, regardless of the final cost.

Whichever of those options is closer to the truth will determine how the Padres address these remaining roster issues.

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