Game Preview: Padres Kick Off Series With Twins

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May 21, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; Minnesota Twins first baseman

Joe Mauer

(7) steals second base as San Diego Padres second baseman

Jedd Gyorko

(9) is unable to control the ball during the sixth inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Today, the Padres and Twins will kick off an inter-league series in Minnesota. The two sides met earlier this year in San Diego where the Twins swept the 2 game set. This wasn’t the first time the Twins have had the Padres number in their team’s history. The Padres haven’t beaten the Twins since 2005 and currently sit on an 8 game losing streak against them.

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The Padres will try to break up the longstanding streak, but they’re hitting Minnesota at a bad time. In their first 3 games this month the Twins have scored a combined 32 runs, including 16 in their last game. It goes without saying, but their bats are hot right now and it’ll take a lot to slow them down.

For every bit the Padres are unlucky to be facing the Twins, Minnesota is just as unlucky to be seeing the Padres. While they haven’t had quite the offensive explosion (although they did score 10 on the 1st) the Padres have now won 5 of their last 6 games, and all of those wins have come against playoff teams from 2013. We may be witnessing the best Padres baseball of 2014 right now, but they’ll have to quell the red hot Twins’ bats to keep the run going.

Jun 30, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher

Jesse Hahn

(45) pitches against the Cincinnati Reds during the second inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Pitching Matchup:

The Padres will tab rookie Jesse Hahn (7-2, 2.01 ERA) to start off the series. This will be Hahn’s 10th start of his young career. It’ll be the first time that he’ll get a chance to have a DH bat for him, so that may take a burden off of his shoulders and could give him a little longer of a leash because Bud Black won’t have to account for any pinch hitting situations involving him.

That longer leash should be a good thing, because Hahn has been as good as anyone recently. He’s won his last 3 major league starts and has only allowed 1 run in each of them and a combined 10 hits. While there was a minor league stint mixed in there, it doesn’t take away from the fact that Hahn dominated 3 teams in the midst of a pennant race, and two of them were on the road.

Opposing him will be Phil Hughes (10-8, 4.12 ERA). Hughes started off the year looking like he had finally hit his stride and living up to the potential the Yankees thought he had.

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In his first 11 starts Hughes went 6-1 with a 3.12 ERA, including a 7 inning shutout performance against the Padres. Since then he’s made 11 more starts going 4-7 with a 5.14 ERA, in large part due to being tagged for 5 or more runs in 6 of those starts. While it looks like batters figured out whatever Hughes was doing and he’s hit a wall since, but if you look a little deeper you’ll notice something strange.

In those 11 starts he got a little lucky, posting an xFIP of 3.61 suggests his results were a little better than expected. Following those 11 starts, he’s been extremely unlucky with a xFIP of 2.92. So if you believe in what xFIP tells us, he’s pitched better but has returned worse results. Hopefully his rotten luck will continue, at least for tonight.

Jun 6, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres 1st baseman

Yonder Alonso

(23) gets the out in the 1st inning during the game against the Washington Nationals at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Stan Liu-USA TODAY Sports

Player to Watch:

It’s no secret Yonder Alonso struggled out of the gate this year. Then a month long DL stint gave him a chance to catch his breath and come back stronger than ever. Well he’s done just that hitting .300/.350/.450 in 8 games since coming off the DL.

While his play has improved, his standing with the club might not have. The Padre fist baseman watched Tommy Medica blossom into one of the team’s top bats this season. Yasmani Grandal also got a chance to take reps at first base, which could take away plate appearances from Alonso. The team has invested a lot in Alonso after shipping away All Star, Anthony Rizzo, to clear a lane for him, and now he has to prove he’s still the team’s best option going forward.

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The days could be numbered for Alonso as an everyday player here, so it’ll be interesting to see if he’ll play up or shrink in the face of adversity. He’ll be starting alongside both Medica and Grandal tonight and will have a chance to separate himself from the pack.

Jul 27, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins center fielder

Danny Santana

(39) hits a triple in the third inning against the Chicago White Sox at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Keys to Padres Victory:

If the Padres want to earn their first win against the Twins in over 9 years they’re going to need at lot of things to go right. Here are a couple of the most important keys to notching a win tonight.

Get Danny Santana Out:

The Twins lead off hitter has been red hot in his team’s last 2 games. He’s gone 7 of 10 with 5 RBI and 5 runs scored. He’s not only setting the table, but also cleaning it up when he gets the chance. The Padres success tonight starts with stopping Santana.

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Get to the Pen Early:

The Twins bullpen may have the 10th lowest ERA in the majors, but there’s more to the story than just ERA. They only strand 72.8% of baserunners which is the 10th worst in the majors and their 6.87 strikeout rate in last among all bullpens. If the Padres can get Phil Hughes out of the game early they can abuse this bullpen to put the game away.

Aug 3, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres shortstop

Alexi Amarista

(5) reacts after being driven in by shortstop

Everth Cabrera

(not pictured) to win the game 4-3 in ten innings against the Atlanta Braves at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Predictions: Padres Win 5-2

I believe that tonight is the night the curse will be lifted. No longer will the Padres be held down by Ron Gardenhire and the Twins. Phil Hughes numbers are trending in a bad direction while Hahn’s are trending in a great direction. Logically if we take recent success it’ll be a slam dunk. Of course that’s not always the case, but I’d say it’s a sound bet with how this team has been playing.

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One streak that I guarantee will end tonight is their walk off streak. The Padres walked off on their final two wins on their home stand, but of course on the road it cannot continue. Now if they’re in yet another close game they’ll have to play their cards a bit differently. The way they manage the pen, and how they’ll choose to move up runners will be affected.

As long as the timely hits keep on coming and the pitching stays great, the Padres win streak will stay alive. First pitch is at 5:10 PDT.

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