Xander Bogaerts is silencing Padres critics in a satisfying way

A $280 million contract will make expectations hard to live up to for anyone, but coming off a five-year stretch in Boston hitting .300/.373/.507, it sure seemed like Xander Bogaerts would have no issues for the Padres. He was solid in his first year in San Diego while playing shortstop, but a position change and injuries marred the better part of his next two years. While he still wasn't striking out, his walk rate dipped, and his average took a tumble as well, leading to him being a hitter hanging around average rather than good to excellent.

This season hasn't seen a return to his Boston days or even his first year in San Diego, but he has shown marked improvements, hitting .276/.344/.402 though play on Wednesday. His 9.4 percent walk rate is the best he's put up since 2021 and his 10.4 percent strikeout rate is the lowest of his career. It's leading to a resurgence for him that started sometime last season. While this may be a selective endpoint, Bogaerts went 4 for 4 in the final game of a series in Los Angeles in June and hit .301/.356/.475 the rest of the way. He was interrupted by a broken foot after fouling a ball off it, but that's the Bogaerts the Padres thought they were getting when they signed him.

Bogaerts is quieting the noise with a much-needed offensive shift

While Bogaerts has never been a true power hitter, his hard-hit rate fell quite a bit in his first two seasons in San Diego. It has risen back up to 41.6 percent this year after climbing to 39.2 percent last year. It was 34.6 percent and 33.2 percent in his first two years with the Padres, respectively. Maybe more important, though, is that he's been less passive. After swinging at 60.3 percent, 61.9 percent, and 59.7 percent of pitches in the zone the first three years with the Padres, he's swinging at more than two-thirds of those pitches this year. His contact rate on those pitches is considerably higher as well. He's hitting .300 with a .443 SLG on pitches in the zone, so that's a recipe for success for him.

It's also worth noting that the expected stats paint an even kinder picture than the actual numbers. His .292 xBA and .462 xSLG to go along with a .360 xwOBA would rank him as one of the top shortstop bats in the majors. One area to keep an eye on moving forward is his success against fastballs. He's currently hitting .279 with a .443 SLG against him, but his expected numbers indicate that he "should" be hitting .307 with a .514 SLG. If those numbers begin to even out, Bogaerts will add another dimension to a lineup that could really use someone stepping up with so many regulars struggling offensively to start the season.

The other major difference is that he's back at his natural position - shortstop. He spent his first year in San Diego as the captain of the infield but moved to second in 2024 to accommodate Ha-Seong Kim. While Kim was the better defender, it's fair to wonder today if that was the right move. Bogaerts was fine at second base with -1 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and +6 OAA (Outs Above Average), but for someone who had exclusively played shortstop since logging 385 innings at third in 2014, it was a departure from his routine. With Kim moving on, he was able to move back to his natural position and started to get back on track to what he once was.

This season, the metrics don't paint quite as kind of a picture of him defensively. He's been worth -2 DRS and -1 OAA, but fielding metrics are notably difficult to believe early in a season as they take some time to regulate. Just for reference, he's had 60 attempts at shortstop with a 63 percent success rate. Last year, he had 411 with a 77 percent success rate. There is plenty of time for the defensive numbers to move in his favor.

There is still plenty of time left for Bogaerts, but the Padres need him to keep this up if they want to keep pace with the Dodgers. So far, so good for the big money shortstop.

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