What happened last time the Padres faced Jacob Misiorowski offers an NLDS blueprint

Jacob Misiorowski can throw a baseball 104 mph. That’s probably going to be a problem. But the Padres still have to show up Saturday and figure out how to win Game 1 of the NLDS. There’s no doubt the lineup will do everything in their power to get to Misiorowski. They also learned a lesson the last time they faced him.

The Miz carved the Friars up on May 13. He threw seven scoreless innings, allowed four hits and struck out 10. The Padres could barely touch him. Yet they won anyway. That may have to be their blueprint this time around if he remains as dominant. Keep the game close, get him off the mound as soon as possible and force somebody else to finish the job.

The Padres trailed 1-0 when Misiorowski departed that night. Milwaukee handed the game to Abner Uribe, and Gavin Sheets blasted a three-run homer with two outs in the ninth. Seven innings of dominance disappeared just like that. The box score credited Uribe with the loss, but the entire Brewers team felt it. The Padres should carry that memory into Game 1.

The Padres don’t have to solve Jacob Misiorowski

The Padres haven’t handled fastballs particularly well this season. Fernando Tatis Jr. was their only hitter to finish above the league-average batting mark against heaters of any velocity, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

It’s not pleasant, but that also doesn’t mean the Padres are helpless. They need to make sure they put up stubborn at-bats and try to get to their starter.

If Misiorowski throws another gem and leaves with a one-run lead, the Padres will have to gladly accept the arrangement. We have already seen how quickly that script can flip. The danger comes if San Diego’s own pitching lets Milwaukee create separation. It’ll be extremely difficult to rally from a three or four run deficit.

San Diego’s offense is better equipped for this fight

The encouraging part is that these are not the same Padres who spent the first half bouncing between hot and cold weeks. They averaged 3.9 runs per game before the All-Star break. That number jumped to 5.2 in the second half. Their OPS climbed from .673 to .781, going from near the bottom of the league to second in the majors.

That improvement held up against good pitching. Since the trade deadline, the Padres posted a .770 OPS against qualifying high-Stuff+ pitchers, the best mark among postseason teams, according to ESPN data cited by Acee. They produced against Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow, Chris Sale, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and several other starters with legitimate swing-and-miss arsenals.

To be fair, Misiorowski presents an even nastier challenge, but the Padres are no longer walking into these matchups hoping a superstar bails them out. The lineup became more disciplined and more confident as rookie hitting coach Steven Souza Jr.’s plans began producing results.

Xander Bogaerts said the job is to wait for a mistake and execute when it arrives. That sounds simple until you try to square up a 103-mph fastball. Still, he’s right. Misiorowski will probably win most of the night’s individual battles. The Padres just need to win a few of the important ones

The Brewers won 22 of Misiorowski’s 30 starts this season. Having him available twice in a five-game series is one of the clearest reasons Milwaukee enters the NLDS favored.

It also creates some pressure. When your ace dominates, you are supposed to win. Milwaukee failed to do that against San Diego in May.

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