Two Padres who will take a large leap forward in 2025, and one who won't

There is no question that the San Diego Padres have a very strong lineup. With a core group of veterans that are signed long term, and promising young guys that are sure to be important pieces in the future, the team looks to be heading in the right direction. As we head into the 2025 season, three Padres players are looking to build last season's efforts. Jackson Merrill and Jeremiah Estrada are in store for very strong seasons, while catcher Elias Diaz may be going against the clock in his 11th season in the MLB.

Jackson Merrill

After a rookie season that many believe should have ended in silverware, Merrill is set to jump straight past the sophomore slump that many recent MLB stars have suffered from. An .826 OPS and consistent delivery in clutch moments had Merrill looking like an established veteran in his first year in the majors.

What makes Merrill's rookie campaign even more impressive is the fact that almost all of the players he faced, and the level of competition he went against, was completely foreign to him. Playing rookie ball in the Padres organization as recently as 2021, and never playing higher than Double-A before the MLB, Merrill was still one of the league's best center fielders. Oh and don't forget he had never played outfield before 2024 either, just to make his campaign even more ridiculous.

Now heading into 2025, Merrill has a lot of numbers that show a breakout season is incoming. In the 94th percentile in sweet-spot rate and 96th percentile in expected slugging, the 21-year-old put up numbers that many rookies simply cannot produce. Add in the fact he played in 156 games in 2024, and the Padres look to have their established centerfielder for years to come.

Jeremiah Estrada

Relatively unknown before making his move to San Diego before the 2024 season, Estrada is poised to build off an impressive campaign last season. Part of a lethal group that includes Robert Suarez, Jason Adam, and Adrian Morejon, Estrada and the Padres bullpen will surely be a strength to lean on for San Diego.

Estrada in particular has ridiculous numbers that should have Padres fans hopeful for his 2025 season. An expected ERA and expected opponent batting average in the top 4 percent of the MLB and a strikeout rate in the top 1 percent means that the three-year veteran has an absolutely filthy arsenal. Of course the rest of the league already knows that, after Estrada became the first player in MLB history to strikeout 13 consecutive batters.

What adds more credibility to Estradas expected breakout in 2025 is his place in the Padres bullpen. With Tanner Scott now in Los Angeles, and Robert Suarez expected to keep his role as the closer, Estrada now finds himself in a high leverage eighth inning role, a great spot for someone who seems to love the pressure. Already a consistent arm for San Diego to lean on in middle inning relief spots, Estrada can now show off his stuff in a setup role that he will surely succeed in.

Elias Diaz

The unfortunate truth about Diaz is he has most likely reached his talent ceiling. Entering his 11th year in the MLB, the 34-year-old is a decent veteran option behind the dish, but a chance of noticeable improvement on his 2024 numbers seems like a long shot. This is not to say Diaz is a bad player—solid defensive numbers and familiarity with the NL West are both positives—but a below league average OPS and inconsistency in the batting average department are concerning.

Diaz is not getting any younger, and with a career OPS below the .700 mark, Padres fans should be expecting average or slightly below average production at the plate in 2025. Even so, Diaz is a valuable piece of the Padres roster. With the front office still having hope in Luis Campusano, and the catcher of the future in Ethan Salas hopefully reaching the MLB soon, the experience and game knowledge that DIaz can provide is invaluable.

Recently signing a one-year deal to stay in San Diego, Diaz will look to be a consistent defensive presence behind the dish in 2025. After slotting in as the Padres backup to Kyle Higashioka following his late season addition, Diaz should now have the starting role with Higgy's move to the Rangers.