The Padres’ World Series case has Dodgers’ fingerprints all over it

The San Diego Padres don’t have to pretend anymore. Their entire World Series argument is built in the shadow of one opponent — and honestly, that’s not a weakness. It’s the point.

For years, the Dodgers have been the loudest, richest, most relentless measuring stick in the NL West. And whether San Diego wants to admit it or not, the Padres have been shaped by that presence. You don’t build this kind of roster, take this many swings, and live with this much chaos if you’re not trying to knock out a giant that lives at the top of your division.

Padres’ World Series odds for the next decade reveal the Dodgers effect

Will Leitch ranked the franchises most likely to win a World Series between 2026–2035, and the Padres showed up at No. 9 — right behind the Cubs and right behind the Orioles, and, yes, in the same top-10 neighborhood as the sport’s usual power brokers. 

That’s not nothing. It’s also not a victory lap.

Because the Padres being ninth is basically the league saying: We see the ambition. But we’re not totally convinced the window stays open long enough to cash it in.

And the reason they’re even on that list is the Dodgers.

Leitch of MLB.com nailed the cleanest version of the idea: when your rival is the best team in baseball, it forces you to level up. It forces urgency. It forces you to make decisions like a team that actually believes October is the standard, not a pleasant surprise.

The Padres’ biggest recent identity shift isn’t a single player or a single season. It’s the willingness to act like a contender even when the risk is uncomfortable. The Dodgers don’t just make San Diego mad. They make the Padres swing at real outcomes instead of settling for respectable ones.

That’s why this rivalry has quietly become an asset. Because if you’re trying to win a World Series, you need something that doesn’t go away when the schedule gets soft or when the vibes dip in June. The Dodgers are that reminder every year.

There’s a downside. Leitch points to it, and it’s real: the Padres are aging right alongside the Dodgers. That’s what happens when two teams live in the same arms race. The pressure to keep up doesn’t always leave room for patience. It can push you into “win-now” choices that look brilliant when they hit and brutal when they don’t.

However, if San Diego’s path to a title is going to be messy, it might as well be purposeful. The Dodgers have functioned like a constant stress test for the Padres’ front office and clubhouse. Are you serious contenders, or are you cosplay contenders? The Padres have been answering that question by going bigger than comfortable. Sometimes it’s imperfect. A lot of the time it’s chaotic. But it’s rarely timid.

Because the version of San Diego that can beat the Dodgers is also the version that can beat anybody. That’s the point of having a rival that extreme: it either breaks you, or it upgrades you.

The Padres have looked upgraded over the last several seasons. Now they just have to finish the job.