Sung-mun Song’s jarring 2026 projection raises a big question for the Padres

The projection doesn’t come out and insult Sung-mun Song — it just shrugs. Steamer treats him like a solid piece, not a roster-defining one. FanGraphs’ 2026 Steamer line has him at 86 games and 323 plate appearances, with a modest .248/.305/.368 slash, a 91 wRC+, and 0.8 WAR.  That’s a useful glue guy who might keep the roster from falling apart. And if that’s the San Diego Padres plan, so be it. 

The projections also have him showing up more than guys like Tirso Ornelas (32 games) and Will Wagner (54 games) — while not necessarily lapping them in overall value. That part actually tracks. Projections love known roles. They don’t love “we’re going to invent a job for you across four positions and see what sticks.”

Sung-mun Song’s suspiciously low projection dares the Padres to show their real intentions

Here’s where we take issue: the Padres didn’t go shopping in Korea to find a 90-game roster accessory. They gave Song four years and $15 million, and the contract structure (including a signing bonus and real year-to-year salaries) screams that they will have a plan for him. And his most recent résumé isn’t exactly delicate: 144 games in 2025 with a .315/.387/.530 line, 26 homers, 25 steals, and a .917 OPS. That’s availability, which the Padres have learned (painfully) is its own star tool.

So the “big question” isn’t whether Steamer is too low on him. Steamer is doing what Steamer does: baking in uncertainty about KBO translations and assuming the most conservative playing-time lane. The real question is what the Padres are admitting about their roster with this projection sitting out in public.

Because if Song is only an 86-game guy in reality, then the Padres essentially paid $15 million for insurance. And that’s a totally defensible plan! It’s also a quiet confession that San Diego doesn’t fully trust its depth to survive 162 without a multi-position safety net.

But if the Padres see Song as closer to 120–140 games (and his KBO workload suggests he can handle it), then Steamer’s “moderate impact” projection is missing the usage entirely. That version of Song isn’t a bench guy. It’s A.J. Preller (and new manager Craig Stammen) deciding the best way to stabilize the 2026 roster is to build flexibility into the infield rather than chasing one more expensive, single-position fix. 

Either way, the projection is jarring because it puts the Padres’ intent on trial. They didn’t sign Song to be interesting. They signed him to matter. Now we find out whether “matter” means everyday… or emergency exit.