Stage is set for Jackson Merrill-Paul Skenes NL ROY showdown to test voters’ mettle

Congratulations, Jackson Chourio. The Milwaukee Brewers outfielder will officially finish third in the race for the 2024 National League Rookie of the Year. Now onto the question that everyone wants to know — who will will the NL Rookie of the Year Award?

The BBWAA released the three finalists for this year's award and to no one's surprise, it was Chourio, San Diego Padres' outfielder Jackson Merrill, and Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes.

Padres' fans are biased, but are also rooted in reality. In a vacuum, Merrill wins this award 10 out of 10 times, and frankly it's not even close. But we're talking about an award voted on by human beings, and the hype surrounding Skenes is undeniable.

Jackson Merrill-Paul Skenes NL Rookie of the Year showdown to test voters’ mettle

A side-by-side comparison of players is difficult in this situation. Merrill is a position player and Skenes is a pitcher. So this isn't as simple as comparing slash lines, defensive statistics, and other metrics to reveal a clear winner.

But when you take into account some of the available data, Merrill is the clear-cut winner. Wins Above Replacement is a rather popular measure of a player's overall contributions to one's team, and Merrill was worth 5.3 fWAR in 2024. Skenes had a great year as well, but only posted a 4.3 fWAR.

Merrill, who is a shortstop by trade, switched positions this spring and broke camp with the team, making the Padres Opening Day roster. Merrill played in 156 games while posting a .993 fielding percentage and 12 outs above average (OAA) while essentially learning center field on the fly. Merrill's 12 OAA rank among the top 10 outfielders in outs above average this past season.

Skenes didn't make his big league debut until May 11, but his 23 starts shouldn't disqualify the flamethrower from winning the award. The last pitcher to win NL Rookie of the Year was Jacob deGrom in 2014, and he only started 22 games. That said, deGrom logged 140 1/3 innings that year, while Skenes recorded 133 innings of work this past season.

The Friar faithful know the truth, but will the voters feel the same way. The winner will be revealed on Nov. 18. This should be an open and shut case for the Padres' rookie, but that's not always how these things play out.

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