Red Sox could become Padres’ perfect one-stop shop at the trade deadline

The Boston Red Sox spent the winter planning to contend and almost all of the first three months preparing to be a deadline seller. Sonny Gray said he’d consider waiving his no-trade clause. Aroldis Chapman is apparently Benjamin Button. And Jarren Duran has been in trade rumors for long enough that it would be weird if he wasn’t discussed. And for a San Diego Padres team that could use a little bit of everything, the Red Sox may be a perfect partner.

The Red Sox aren’t your standard fire-sale team. They are absolutely buried at 31-45 through Monday and in last in the AL East by a significant margin. They’ve already fired their manager and some coaches. But the roster doesn’t look this bad on paper. Injuries certainly haven’t helped them, which is why they really need more of a reset than a rebuild. And that distinction matters for the Padres.

A team hitting the reset button isn’t just trading everyone they can just to trade them. They want players to help now (or in the very near future) and in the longer-term future. That’s exactly the lane the Padres may be the worst-equipped to be in, but also the kind of puzzle A.J. Preller seems to love to solve.

Sonny Gray, Aroldis Chapman, and Jarren Duran would all fill the Padres' needs

We can look at this one by one and start with Gray. He’s the easy one. Through Monday, he has a 3.12 ERA in 69.1 innings across 13 starts. His strikeout rate is way down, but his walks are solid. He’s the kind of steady arm the Padres could really use, given that Nick Pivetta is hurt now and can opt out after the season, and so can Michael King. Now, Gray’s contract gets a little messy with a $10 million buyout on a 2027 mutual option, but that also means he’s likely affordable in terms of player return. If the Padres actually have money to spend, they can use that rather than a premium prospect.

Up next is Chapman. He’s 38 and looks 25 and is still a dominant force. He hasn’t been quite as good as last year, but the ERA is hovering around 2.00 with the FIP below it. He’s still striking out more than 30 percent of hitters. He is walking more this year. But his sinker velocity is still averaging 98 MPH. His four-seamer is still at 96.7 MPH. Admittedly, that’s down a fair amount from last year, but he had room to spare. Adding him to a bullpen that includes Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada, and Jason Adam would be unfair. It’s the kind of move that turns a strength into, well, a bigger strength. It is worth noting that the Dodgers have interest, so there’s another plus to acquiring him if the Padres could.

And the last piece is the bat, Duran. This is the Padres' biggest need, but also likely the most expensive to acquire. The Padres have spent most of the year at the bottom of the league in the majority of offensive categories. Where it gets a little tricky is that Duran isn’t having a good year either. He has a wRC+ of just 70 through Monday. He does have 12 home runs, and some underlying numbers suggest things aren’t that bad, but they aren’t good either. Still, he hit .295/.346/.482 in 2023 and .285/.342/.492 in 2024. 

Last year wasn’t quite as good at .256/.332/.442, but even that would be a marked improvement over what the Padres are getting. And he’s controllable through 2028 at a relatively inexpensive number. He’s making $7.7 million this year and is arbitration-eligible the next two. The bet is that a change of scenery and a pennant race wakes him up, and it won’t be a cheap bet to make.

Okay, but how are they going to pay for this? None of it comes free, and the Padres need it to be closer to free than it probably requires because they don’t have much of a farm to empty. This system was pretty well gutted last summer to get Miller, Ramon Laureano, and Ryan O’Hearn. The system is now one of the thinnest in baseball. Add in a payroll that’s already over the luxury tax threshold, and the Padres are showing up to the store with a credit card nearing its limit.

That’s kind of why this makes a lot of sense. Both Gray and Chapman seem doable. They’re rentals, which limits the return. They’re expensive, which limits their destinations. They’re the kind of deals a team hellbent on winning can make. Duran is the dream that might be tough to fund because the Red Sox asking price for him is understandably quite high. They want young, controllable talent, and the Padres don’t really have that. To get the bat, Preller would have to deal from the big league team, not just the farm. It might get weird.

The Padres are far too talented not to add to this roster, if they’re able. And that’s where a one-stop shop might come in. If you only have to get creative with one team, maybe it’s something that’s a little easier to get done. And there happens to be one team holding players who can help the Padres on all the levels they need, which lends itself to a potential deal. And if anyone can figure out how to put it together, it’s Preller. But it won’t be easy.

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