Randy Vásquez’s recent collapse puts Padres rotation trust back on trial

Randy Vásquez gave the Padres a fun story to begin the season. He started it off looking completely different. The fastball had much more life. After spending the offseason working with Yu Darvish, it was easy to buy into the idea that the Padres had unlocked something in their back-end starter.

The Padres weren’t looking for Vásquez to become their next ace. But he was the best thing going in April. Now we have a different version standing in front of us. Vásquez’s latest start against the Texas Rangers wasn’t just a rough night. He allowed six earned runs on eight hits and three walks in just 3 1/3 innings. It was his shortest start of the season, and it came at a bad time for a Padres team that needs answers.

It would be different if this was a one-off. Those happen. This was another sign that Vásquez’s early-season comfort is starting to crack.

Randy Vásquez’s Padres breakthrough is starting to come with warning signs

The most obvious red flag is the missing swing-and-miss. After striking out 8 in 3 of his first 4 starts, the question was how long he could keep it up. Unfortunately, we didn’t have to wait long to figure that out. The margin had been steadily shrinking after getting roughed up by the Cubs on April 27.

Since then, Vásquez is not striking out enough hitters to survive his own command issues. When he is putting guys away, the traffic is somewhat manageable. When he isn’t, things get a little more chaotic.

Vásquez is now riding a 6-5 record with a 4.17 ERA and 59 strikeouts over 77 2/3 innings. We’ve seen enough from him to understand why the Padres want to keep giving him chances. He’s 27 years old with real arm talent. And he came over from the Yankees in the Juan Soto trade. There’s always been a sense that maybe there was something more in there if the Padres could just unlock it. 

All of that makes this most recent slide more frustrating than surprising. Especially if the Padres want to make the most out of dealing Soto. 

But what makes matters worse is what the underlying numbers say. They tell us that regression was inevitable. He’s carrying an xERA of 6.50, and an xBA of .297. His barrel percentage is in the fourth percentile in the league. That’s pretty strong proof that Vásquez is also the beneficiary of the team's 4th ranked defense. There’s a ton of loud contact coming from opposing bats when he’s on the mound, and it was only going to be a matter of time for it to catch up with him if couldn’t strike guys out. 

The Padres already have enough to sort through before the trade deadline. They need offense and consistency. Vásquez’s early-season performance gave them a little breathing room on the pitching side, but this recent stretch has taken that breathing room away. 

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