Predicting where Padres' Fernando Tatis Jr. will finish in the 2025 NL MVP race

Fernando Tatis Jr. has become one of the faces of Major League Baseball since he was called up in 2019. An immediate sensation, Tatis Jr. has helped elevate the San Diego Padres' brand, as he's grown into a superstar.

This past season, Tatis Jr. posted career-highs in hits (159), runs scored (111), stolen bases (32) and on-base percentage with a minimum 90 games played (.368). It was another successful campaign for Tatis Jr., which now begs the question: Where will he finish in the NL MVP race this season?

Padres' Fernando Tatis Jr. deserves a Top 10 NL MVP finish in 2025

First off, let's get the automatic MVP contenders out of the way: Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers), Paul Skenes (Pirates), Juan Soto (Mets)?? Those three guys probably deserve a better finish in the MVP race than Tatis Jr., and possibly Phillies' ace Cristopher Sanchez, too. Fair enough.

But after these players, the second tier in the National League has a pretty fluid ranking. Those players include: Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs), Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks), Matt Olson (Braves), Geraldo Perdomo (Diamondbacks), Nico Hoerner (Cubs), Freddie Freeman (Dodgers), Brice Turang (Brewers), Pete Alonso (Mets), and of course, Fernando Tatis Jr.

Let's go through each aspect of the game that makes Tatis Jr. so great, and see how it stacks up against the other players listed, especially the outfielders named. Defensively, Tatis Jr. was named a Gold Glove finalist in right field. Among those eight other players in that second tier with Tatis Jr., five others are also finalists. Soto, Alonso, and Perdomo are not among the ones in the running.

But what makes Tatis Jr. stand out among these other fielders is his 31 Total Zone Runs, which was the best in the National League. He also secured 15 defensive runs saved, and 8 Outs Above Average - where he falls short to a few outfielders (Carroll, Crow-Armstrong).

Tatis Jr. (5.9), Carroll (5.8), and Crow-Armstrong (6.0) are barely separated in bWAR, and they each exhibit different elite tools in the outfield. On offense, however, Carroll's .883 OPS and 140 OPS+ lead the pack. Carroll's 80 extra-base hits also outreach Tatis Jr.'s 64, and PCA's 72. So Carroll might find himself with an MVP finish in the 3-6 range. Hats off to him.

What could separate Tatis Jr. - who was a leading candidate for the award in May - from PCA is their production in the final month of the regular season. Obviously, voters take an entire season's worth of production into account for the MVP award, but the last month is arguably the most important time to contribute to a postseason contender.

PCA batted .204 in his final 30 games with a .576 OPS and three home runs, while Tatis Jr. crushed eight homers with an .839 OPS. That's a pretty drastic difference, which allowed Tatis Jr. to even himself with PCA. It's tough to say which player is better than the other, so it may just come down to the voters' preference. Something tells me that a player in Chicago will get more votes than a San Diego guy if they are split-even in talent and production.

With that said, though, Tatis Jr. was a Top 4-5 outfielder overall in the National League. That should garner him a Top 10 MVP finish, and my guess will be in the 8-9 range.