San Diego Padres: Projecting the 2024 starting rotation possibilities

Darvish and Musgrove must pitch like aces

You can make an argument for either Darvish or Musgrove being San Diego's best starting pitcher. However, neither solidified their case last season. Injuries made them (Darvish with elbow issues and Musgrove with broken toe and right shoulder inflammation) a non-factor, especially down the stretch attempting to secure a postseason berth. Darvish was 8-10 with a 4.56 ERA, and Musgrove was more consistent at 10-3 with a 3.05 ERA.

Neither pitcher made the Friars feel invincible when they took the mound. Darvish and Musgrove would start games strong before a sudden drop-off that affected their dominance. Thus, their evening ended early. With that, questions arise if either starter could remain healthy for a full season (41 combined starts in 2023).

Let's not kid ourselves, Darvish and Musgrove are not going anywhere despite their struggles last season. Both pitchers have contract extensions (Darvish owed $78 million through 2028, and Musgrove owed $80 million through 2027), which makes it hard to move them any potential trade. The front office felt their 2023 performance level was an aberration and not the norm.

Should Blake Snell stay or go?

In 2023, Blake Snell lived up to expectations. He dominated (14-9 with a 2.25 ERA) on the mound and enjoyed his best season since winning the American League Cy Young Award in 2018. But Snell is a pending free agent, so the Padres must decide if they will offer him a long-term deal to remain in San Diego.

Even though Snell seems to have checked all the boxes, the Friars may not have enough room on the 2024 projected payroll budget to make such a big-money commitment.

Unknown status of Wacha and Lugo in 2024

The Padres are in the market for one starting pitcher, but that number could grow to three as we move further along this offseason. The area of concern is the future of Wacha and Lugo as the fourth and fifth starter in the rotation. Both pitchers are expected to opt out of their deals to test the free-agent market.

First, Lugo will decline his player option ($7.5 million 2024 salary) to seek a longer guarantee deal on the open market. Wacha’s contract is a little more complicated as the Padres hold a two-year, $32 million option. First, the organization must decline their option before Wacha can decline his three-year, $18.5 million option. Rejecting his contract would give the Friars more financial flexibility to improve the roster.

Wacha was the Padres' most consistent starting pitcher (14-4 with a 3.22 ERA) not named Snell. He rediscovered himself as a serviceable starting pitcher. Wacha struggled at the tail end of his St. Louis Cardinals career and the time spent with the New York Mets and Tampa Bay Rays. Surprisingly, he added more velocity on his fastball, but Wacha still is nothing more than a 5+ innings starter.

Lugo is coming off a successful first season as a full-time starter. He did miss time due to a calf injury, but Lugo showed he was an innings-eater. Lugo pitched 146.1 innings in 26 starts. He never lost confidence in his attempt to become an effective starting pitcher. Some questioned the motivation, especially after having great success coming out of the bullpen. The Padres offered an opportunity, and Lugo showed his worth.

There is no guarantee that Wacha and Lugo will wear the brown and gold next Opening Day. Each pitcher should have a fair number of suitors this winter.

Is Pedro Avila an in-house option?

One of the Friars in-house candidates for a starting role is Pedro Avila, who forced his way into consideration by going 2-2 with a 3.22 ERA in six late-season starts. But patience is needed from the Friar Faithful as Avila is learning and growing. After a taste of the majors, he is ready to win a spot in the 2024 starting rotation. Unless the 40-man roster changes significantly, Avila will have an opportunity to prove his case in spring training.

What is next?

The Padres front office must be concerned with the lack of starting pitching depth on the 40-man roster, so A.J. Preller has work to do in solidifying the starting rotation.

The Friars could aggressively pursue arbitration-eligible starting pitchers on the trade market. This approach could be very promising as the Padres would have to give up minimal in a potential deal.

Also, options will be available on the free agent market this offseason, but they must refrain from signing pitchers who are just hanging around. Instead, the Friars must pursue starters looking to rebound from past struggles.

Luis Severino would be an excellent target after a disappointing season (4-8 with a 6.85 ERA) with the New York Yankees. A change of scenery might be good for Severino to regain his All-Star effectiveness on the hill.

The Padres seem to have unlimited solutions to their starting pitching problems. The choices, however, cannot fail or misstep next season.