San Diego Padres: The dream starting lineup for the 2024 season

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Much of what could have gone wrong for the San Diego Padres in the 2023 season did go wrong, as the team that many predicted would win the World Series failed to even make the playoffs.

The Padres were coming off an NLCS appearance in 2022 and added key players including Xander Bogaerts in free agency, but the team never quite clicked until it was too late.

Following the nightmare that was 2023, it's only fair for the Friar Faithful to dream about their 2024 lineup. While it's always fun to dream, it's important to be somewhat realistic as well. As much as we'd love for Shohei Ohtani to come to town, chances are that just won't be happening the way things are right now.

1) Fernando Tatis Jr. - RF

It was hard to picture exactly what the Padres were going to get out of Fernando Tatis Jr. after he missed the entire 2022 season due to injury and his PED suspension. Additionally, he was going to have to get accustomed to a new position, right field, after the team inked Xander Bogaerts to a long deal.

Tatis did as well as anyone could've possibly hoped defensively in right field as he put up a whopping 29 DRS and 11 outs above average while also contributing 12 outfield assists. There's a very good chance Tatis walks home with a Gold Glove.

While he excelled in the field, Tatis didn't look quite like his superstar self. He was good, but not quite his usual superstar self. He slashed .257/.322/.449 with 25 home runs and 78 RBI. His 113 OPS+ certainly wasn't bad, but it was far below his career mark of 143. Hopefully after going through a full season he'll be able to bounce back.

Tatis leading off should be an easy decision for whoever the new Padres skipper is. His numbers from the top spot in the order are a whole lot better than they are anywhere else. His .885 OPS in the 45 games he led off were over 150 points better than his .731 OPS from the number two spot in his 81 games there.

2) Juan Soto - LF

I have no idea what Juan Soto's future is with this Padres team. Due to the organization's financial situation and his contract status, it's very possible they move on from him. Trading Soto before likely losing him in free agency wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, but it'd put a huge crimp in San Diego's chances to compete in 2024. In this dream scenario, the Padres win the World Series and Soto plays a huge role in that.

After his rough start to the season, Soto gave the Padres the kind of season they were expecting when they gave up the farm to acquire him. He slashed .275/.410/.519 with 35 home runs and 109 RBI. He had a 158 OPS+ and even tied his career-high with 12 stolen bases.

Soto being the on-base and power machine he is makes him the perfect number two hitter. He struggled in that spot this past season, but there's no reason to believe he'd struggle there all the time.

If Soto is with the Padres in 2024, expect him to be a huge reason why this team makes it back to the playoffs and makes the big run they hoped they'd make this past season.

3) Manny Machado - 3B

A big reason why this Padres team failed this season was because of how unpreductive Manny Machado was for a big portion of it. Sure, his season totals look pretty good, but he didn't meet the expectations that came with being the 2022 NL MVP runner-up.

Through the end of June, the Padres third baseman had just a .678 OPS and nine home runs. Sure, he missed time with injury, but that's virtually half of a season of Machado being a below-average player when the team expected him to play like a superstar. Once the calendar flipped to July Machado started playing much better and did his best to help get his team back in it, but they ultimately fell short.

Machado's finish was encouraging as we inch closer to 2024. He should fit in seamlessly in the middle of the lineup once again, and hitting behind Juan Soto and in front of a very formidible middle of the order should give him plenty to hit.

The Padres are going to go in large part where Manny takes them. Soto's future might be uncertain, but Machado is here to stay for the long haul. The Padres are going to need a superstar season from their superstar third baseman.

4) J.D. Martinez - DH

Time for our first external addition. How sweet would it be to steal J.D. Martinez away from the rival Dodgers? Hopefully this doesn't mean Shohei Ohtani ends up there, of course, but Martinez would be a pretty great consolation prize for a Padres team that likely won't be landing Shohei Ohtani.

It looked like Martinez's career was nearing its end after a rough 2022 season. He struggled relative to Martinez's lofty expectations, and was dealing with a nagging back issue. As many do with the Dodgers, Martinez turned back the clock and had a great year as their DH.

The 36-year-old slashed .271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs and 103 RBI in 113 games this season for the Dodgers. He would've ranked second on this Padres team only behind Juan Soto in both home runs and RBI despite missing 49 games this past season. Adding a guy like that would certainly help things.

The Padres struggled to get any regular production out of the DH spot with the signings of Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter proving to be utter failures. Signing the second-best one on the market for a year or two would certainly help improve things in that area.

5) Xander Bogaerts - SS

The Padres signed Xander Bogaerts to the massive deal they inked him on to help lead San Diego to glory. After a raging hot start to begin his Padres career, Bogaerts slowed down and finished with what many would deem a subpar first season in Southern California.

Bogaerts had just a .790 OPS for the Padres this season and a 120 OPS+. He wasn't bad, but it was his worst offensive season since 2017. As unfortunate as his struggles were as the season progressed, there's every reason to believe that Bogaerts at age 31 is going to bounce back. He's too good of a player not to.

When the Padres were healthy, Bogaerts was hitting fifth. His 74 appearances out of the five-hole were his most out of any spot this past season, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him slotted in that role again. When right, he's a player who can hit around or over .300 and also contribute in the power department. He should be driving in a ton of runs in 2024, especially if these four hitting in front of him can stay healthy.

For Bogaerts to have more success in the RBI department in 2024, he's going to have to hit better with runners in scoring position. Bogaerts' .192 average in those spots was pathetic, and a really disappointing part of his game.

6) Ha-Seong Kim - 2B

In a season full of inconsistencies, Ha-Seong Kim was the one constant the Padres could always rely on this season. It never really felt like he hit any massive skid, and was always steady. He had his best season as a Padre in 2023, and really took off after being put in the leadoff spot.

It took a lot to move Kim outside of the top spot in the lineup because of how solid he was in that position, but this team is just too deep to put him there. The options were to either hit Kim at the top and move the first five down, or just slot Kim in at six. The simple reality is I'd rather players like Tatis, Soto, and Machado rack up more at-bats than Kim who is good, but not them.

Kim can still play a big role out of the sixth spot with his power (17 home runs in 2023) while also wrecking havoc on the base paths (38 stolen bases in 2023).

While he'd slide into the sixth spot in this potential lineup, there's a good chance Kim will hit all over the order. He'll probably lead off a good amount when players at the top have a day off, and could even find his way closer to the bottom as a guy who could get on base in front of Tatis and Soto. Kim's value as a Swiss Army Knife on this team is invaluable. The Padres are lucky to have him.

7) Jake Cronenworth - 1B

Several Padres players took major steps back in 2023 and Jake Cronenworth was no exception, slashing .229/.312/.378 with 10 home runs and 48 RBI. He went from being an all-star in back-to-back seasons in 2021 and 2022 to a below-average hitter in 2023 thanks to his 92 OPS+.

Cronenworth took over as the everyday first baseman but his 92 WRC+ ranked 22nd out of 24 qualified first basemen. It's rare to see a first baseman be a below-average hitter, and watching such a professional hitter to the extent that he did was frustrating.

The 29-year-old is an easy player to root for and an obvious bounce-back candidate in 2024. Having him hit in the lower third of the order without as much pressure could be helpful, as he won't be a player the Padres rely upon to hit at the all-star level he had done in the past. Any sort of production he can give is gravy.

If an injury were to occur, Cronenworth is another guy San Diego can move up and down their lineup with the type of hitter he is. He might hit seventh on Opening Day, but it wouldn't be surprising to see his name in all types of spots. He started a game in six different spots in 2023.

8) Mitch Garver - C

Mitch Garver would be another external addition made by the Padres and he'd be one that would help beef up the lineup even more. Over the last six seasons, Garver has been one of the best offensive catchers in the majors when healthy, posting an .831 OPS and a 124 OPS+. The key words unfortunately, are when healthy as Garver has struggled to stay on the field during that stretch.

The 32-year-old was limited to just 87 games this past season for the Rangers, but he was as impactful as one could be in virtually half a season. He slashed .270/.370/.500 with 19 home runs and 50 RBI in just 344 plate appearances. He had a 134 OPS+, and wound up playing a key role in the postseason for Texas as their primary DH,

His bat was electric in 2023 and has been for most of that six year stretch, but injuries are a concern and the fact that he caught just 28 games this past season is also not great. While there are some clear red flags here, Garver won't be asking for a massive long-term deal with his health a major question, and the Padres would still have Luis Campusano around as a very capable backup.

The Padres watched Gary Sanchez perform at a pretty high level offensively even with his shortcomings defensively. Adding Garver whose offense is at a whole other level above Sanchez would make this team better.

9) Trent Grisham - CF

Trent Grisham is what he is at this point. He won't give much offensively, but is a great defender and draws a lot of walks.

His 2023 season was not one for the record books offensively. He hit below .200 with a .666 OPS in 153 games for San Diego. The reason he played everyday was because of his defense being valuable in center field, and the fact that he still got on base at a decent clip. The strikeouts are annoying, but Grisham drew 75 walks and had a .315 OBP.

If the Padres had a top eight consisting of the eight in this dream lineup, they really don't need a great hitter to round out the order. They should be fine sacrificing offense for defense in that case and still score a bunch of runs. Plus, Grisham will still hit 10-15 home runs and steal a decent amount of bases too. The outfielder even chipped in a career-high 31 doubles this past season.

The Phillies were just one win away from winning the NL Pennant with Johan Rojas as their center fielder and number nine hitter. Rojas had four hits in 43 at-bats in the playoffs and he still wasn't the reason they lost. This team is about the stars. A player like Grisham just has to play well in center field and chip in on occasion offensively. Considering the fact that he was in the 92nd percentile in OAA according to baseball savant, I think the Padres are just fine here.

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