San Diego Padres: The dream rotation for the 2024 season

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Baseball’s offseason has arrived. General managers across the league are gathering for their annual meeting this week. Scottsdale, Arizona, is where teams begin the groundwork in shaping their 2024 rosters.

Inevitably, a couple of major trades and free-agent signings will impact the outcome of next season. And for the San Diego Padres, the front office will need to reconfigure their starting rotation. They could lose as many as three starters via free agency.

That’s baseball!

It's early in the process, but let’s take a look at the dream San Diego Padres 2024 starting rotation:

Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove co-aces?

Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove are the No. 1 and 2 starters in the Friars starting rotation next season. If the team is going to have a winning record, both pitchers must perform at a high level in 2024.

Darvish had a very up-and-down 2023 season, which raised concerns if there was still dominance somewhere inside his right arm. Whispers of a long-term injured list stay followed Darvish at every turn in the second half.

Even so, he kept pitching until it was physically impossible for him to continue. Unfortunately, injuries took a toll on his body as Darvish looked lost in each start. His ERA soared to 4.80 in August before exiting the roster.

The nightmare ending to his 2023 season has everyone wondering if Darvish could duplicate his dominance on the mound again. Could he ever replicate his past accomplishments in the majors once more?

The answer is no, but Darvish can still dominate by using his entire pitching repertoire.

At times, Musgrove’s time with the Padres has been straight out of a Hollywood movie. He burst into the spotlight and became an unsung hero in the 2022 postseason. Each start was appointment watching for the Friar Faithful. Often, his brilliance outshined others in a big playoff game win.

However, lingering injuries cast a shadow over him all last season. A broken big toe and shoulder inflammation contributed to Musgrove's failure to capture the height of his dominance. He posted a 3.05 ERA, which was good enough for a 134 ERA+ last season. Musgrove struck out 97 batters and walked just 21 hitters in 97.1 IP.

Musgrove must continue to do a great job limiting quality contact off his fastball. Hopefully he can still generate plenty of swings and misses in 2024.

Who comes back: Blake Snell, Michael Wacha or Seth Lugo?

Under most circumstances, the Padres would have an excellent shot of re-signing two out of their three free-agent starting pitchers. Now, the odds are high that Blake Snell, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo could be pitching elsewhere next season.

Snell is on the verge of winning his second Cy Young award as he led the National League with a 2.25 ERA. And if you add his durability to make each start, Snell could sign one of the biggest free-agent deals this winter.

Wacha dominated the competition as he went 14-4 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 24 starts last season. But he did miss time with shoulder inflammation that reduced his velocity and ground ball out ratio. Questions of his durability could deny Wacha receiving a long-term commitment from another organization.

Lugo bet on himself, and it will pay off for him this offseason. He opted out of his deal with the Padres after going 8-7 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 140/36 K/BB ratio in 26 starts. The lone blemish was missing time after straining his calf in an early-season start.

All are heading to the free agent market in search of a big payday. Each pitcher will have a number of suitors. Hopefully, one will return to the fold in San Diego next season.

Reclamation project: Luis Severino

The hope for Luis Severino is for one team to be confident enough to give a multi-year deal this offseason. However, the odds are better that he will sign a one-year contract to help build his market value for next offseason.

Last season, Severino posted disappointing numbers (6.85 ERA in 89.1 innings pitched) with the New York Yankees. Problems occurred with his fastball as it showed little movement despite having good velocity coming towards home plate. The results are not favorable for starting pitchers who rely on their fastball to get outs. Definitely it was a far cry from his 2018 season, where Severino had a 3.39 ERA with a 220/46 K/BB ratio.

A change of scenery could provide a much-needed platform for a desperate pitcher searching for consistency. Severino is confident he can return to his former self. Despite all the struggles, he is considered a strong back-of-the-rotation candidate in 2024.

Past major league success has a way of getting struggling starting pitchers a second chance with a new organization. San Diego could be Severino’s first stop on his comeback trail.

Give Pedro Avila a chance

Pedro Avila is looking to secure the No.5 starting role in the 2024 Padres rotation. He pitched briefly as a starter late last season as injuries decimated the Friars rotation. Avila had a 3.22 ERA and 54/25 K/BB ratio in 50.1 innings. He was impressive enough to put his name into consideration for a roster spot.

Despite the outstanding numbers, the short sampling may not be enough to win a spot in the starting rotation. But do not count out Avila as being a game-changer for the Friars in 2024. It is his time to shine and remain in the majors for an entire season.

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It's early in the process, but let’s take a look at the dream San Diego Padres 2024 starting rotation:

Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove co-aces?

Who comes back: Blake Snell, Michael Wacha or Seth Lugo?

Reclamation project: Luis Severino

Give Pedro Avila a chance

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