San Diego Padres: The 10 best front office seasons in franchise history

In the 55-season history of the San Diego Padres, only 10 men have held the position of general manager. And only three of those 10 served for 32 (that’s nearly two-thirds) of those seasons.

It should be no surprise, then, that Jack McKeon, Kevin Towers and A.J. Preller between them have supervised eight of the 10 best seasons ever put together by a Padres front office.

McKeon (1981-1990), Towers (1996-2009) and Preller (2015-present) are the only three team chief execs to have held on to the position for more than four seasons. For the record, here’s a chronological list of the remaining seven, all of whom either left or were ousted after four or fewer years on the job:

Buzzie Bavasi, 1969-72

Peter Bavasi, 1974-76

Bob Fontaine, 1977-80

Joe McIlvaine, 1991-93

Randy Smith, 1994-95

Jed Hoyer, 2010-11

Josh Byrnes, 1012-14

Measuring the performance of a front office can either be an objective or subjective exercise. One logical starting point would simply be to compare season records. By that method, Towers’ 1998 season — when the Padres won 98 games and played in the World Series — would be the franchise’s best. McKeon’s 92-win season of 1984 would rank second, followed by Towers’ 1996 season (91 wins), and Preller’s 2022 season (90).

However, I prefer a more mathematically nuanced approach that considers the extent to which a general manager’s personnel decisions since the conclusion of the previous season impacted his team.

The standard of measurement is Wins Above Average (WAA), a variant of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). For this purpose, WAA is preferable because unlike WAR, it is zero-based. That means the sum of all the decisions made by a general manager impacting the season in question gives at least a good estimate of the number of games those moves have improved (or worsened) the team’s status.

A team’s front office impacts that team’s standing in five ways. Those five are:

1. By the impact of players it acquires from other teams via trade, purchase or waiver claim.

2. By the impact of players it surrenders to other teams in those same transactions.

3. By the impact of players it signs at free agency or extends.

4. By the impact of players it loses to free agency or releases.

5. By the impact of players it promotes from its own farm system.

Here are the 10 most positively impactful seasons by a San Diego Padres general manager as determined by those five yardsticks.

The top line contains the GM’s rank, name, season in question, total games of impact via his moves, and (in parenthesis) a breakdown of the number of positive, negative and neutral personnel moves.

10. A.J. Preller, 2020, +4.6 (24-19-6)

Preller is recognized as one of the current game’s most prolific and most productive acquirers of talent in direct deals with other teams. Statistically, there is no finer illustration of this than his work leading up to and during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

Preller acquired 18 players that season who accumulated time on the Padres’ big league roster, and the collective value of those 18 (as measured by WAA) was +3.3 games to Preller’s credit.

He enhanced the value of those trades, sales or claims by improving the Padres another 2.6 games via the players he exchanged.

That makes Preller’s net impact on the 2020 Padres in trades alone +5.9 games. Since Preller’s tenure as general manager began, that’s his best score in direct negotiations with other teams.

Preller’s most productive that off-season took place in November of 2019. He sent three players to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for outfielder Trent Grisham (+1.6 WAA) and pitcher Zach Davies  (+1.1).

Grisham batted .251 in regular duty and became an exceptional defensive outfielder. Davies went 7-4 in a dozen starts with a 2.73 ERA.

The other noteworthy trade went largely unnoticed at the time. In December of 2019, Preller sent Hunter Renfroe, Esteban Quiroz and Xavier Edwards to the Tampa Bay Rays for Tommy Pham (-0.6) and a little known minor leaguer named Jake Cronenworth (+1.1). Given a chance in San Diego, Cronenworth hit .285 as a rookie second baseman, blossoming into a regular..

Preller’s various trades cost him 13 players off the Padres’ 2019 roster, of whom Renfroe was one of the best known. But 10 of those 13 produced negative value for their 2020 teams; Preller knew what he was doing.

8. Jack McKeon, 1988, +6.4 (12-3-1)

When the Padres finished last in 1980, team owner Ray Kroc dismissed GM Bob Fontaine and elevated his chief assistant, Jack McKeon, to the general managership. That moved launched one of the longest and most successful tenures in the team’s history.

McKeon ran the team through 1990, winning its first pennant in 1984 and achieving the best record (87 wins) to that point in franchise history. By percentage points, he remains the second most successful GM in franchise history at .487.

Although 1984 was McKeon’s championship season, he actually had two better years from the standpoint of impact on team performance. The first of those came in 1988 when, despite McKeon’s best efforts, the Padres still only finished third in the NL West, 11 games behind the Dodgers.

McKeon made four moves of consequence to the Padres, none moreso than his promotion of prized rookie second baseman Roberto Alomar after only nine games at Triple-A Las Vegas. Alomar batted .266 in 611 plate appearances with the Padres, finishing fifth in Rookie of the Year voting and piling up a 2.2 WAA.

McKeon wanted a shortstop with more offensive potential than the veteran incumbent, Garry Templeton. He signed Dickie Thon, coming off a bad 1987 with the Houston Astros, and got a .264 season good for a +1.1 WAA. He also re-signed veteran pitcher Eric Show, who had his best season for the Padres. Show went 16-11 with a 3.26 ERA in 32 starts, pitching 13 complete games. That added up to +1.3 WAA.

To further fortify the pitching staff, McKeon also completed a mid-season trade with the Cincinnati Reds that returned former Padre Dennis Rasmussen to San Diego. With the Reds, Rasmussen had been a liability; a 2-6 record and 5.75 ERA. More comfortable in San Diego, he made 20 starts with a 2.55 ERA and 14-4 record, amounting to a +1.6 WAA.

Only one criticism of McKeon’s 1988 performance is plausible, and that was his caution. He hit on an extraordinarily high 75 percent of his personnel decisions … but he only made 16 of them, an unusually low number. What, it’s fair to wonder, might the 1988 Padres had done if their GM had coupled his judgment with a more frenetic pace of activity?

T-6. Kevin Towers, 2007, +6.7 (25-17-4)

The 2007 Padres were coming off a season in which they won the NL West via a tie-breaker over the Dodgers, so Towers had a good nucleus with which to work. That nucleus included pitchers Jake Peavy and Chris Young, shortstop Khalil Greene, closer Trevor Hoffman, outfielders Mike Cameron and Brian Giles, and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez.

But with the Dodgers an ever-present threat and the Arizona Diamondbacks improving, San Diego needed more. Towers went out and got help, although by season’s end his team was only good enough for 89 victories, tying Colorado for a wild card spot. The Rockies won that playoff game in walk-off fashion, ending San Diego’s postseason hopes.

Towers did his part. A five-player trade with the Mets in November of 2006 landed reliever Heath Bell, who played a critical supporting role for the aging Hoffman. Bell worked 94 innings with a 2.02 ERA. A midseason deal with Oakland landed troubled but talented outfielder Milton Bradley, and he hit .313 with 11 home runs in 42 games.

To back up Peavy and Young, Towers signed 41-year-old Greg Maddux in the hope that the multiple Cy Young Award winner had one more magical season in him. Maddux responded with 14 wins in 34 starts.

When Matt Holliday scored on Jamey Carroll’s 13th inning sacrifice fly to end that playoff game in  a 9-8 Rockies win, all of Towers’ efforts turned out not to be enough to get San Diego into postseason play for what would have been a franchise record third straight season.

It was a bitter outcome since the Padres lost the season’s final two games, a win in either of which would have advanced them. Then they gave up a two-run lead in that fated 13th.

But the Padres came as close as it was possible to come to qualifying without actually doing so. Towers had a lot to do with putting them in position to get as far as they did.

T-6. Bob Fontaine, 1977, +6.7 (10-13-2)

Fontaine was a former minor league pitcher who was hired as amateur scouting director when the Padres were founded in 1969. After serving as director of player development, he succeeded Bavasi as GM upon Bavasi’s resignation to become president of the expansion Toronto Blue Jays.

His first season running the club coincided with the rise of free agency as an important tool for improving a team, and (using Ray Kroc’s money) Fontaine was among those club execs who made good use of it. He signed catcher Gene Tenace (+2.8), formerly of Oakland. Tenace only hit .233, but his league-leading 125 bases on balls drove his on base average to .415 and his OPS to .824.

Fontaine’s second productive foray into free agency landed the game’s best closer in that era, Rollie Fingers. He signed for four seasons for a little more than $1 million and in 1977 made 78 appearances for the Padres, closing out a league-leading 35 wins.

Fontaine also landed disgruntled outfielder George Hendrick (+3.8) in a four-player swap with Cleveland. With the Padres in 1977, Hendrick batted .311 with an .873 OPS.

From a fan standpoint, possibly his best move was locking up the team’s star, Dave Winfield, for four more seasons. Winfield hit .275 with 25 home runs for the Padres in 1977, producing a +3.2 WAA impact.

Despite all that, Fontaine was unable to improve the Padres’ overall standing. They finished fifth in the six-team in NL West with just 69 wins.

5. A.J. Preller, 2015, +7.9 WAA. (23-22-1)

The 2015 season was Preller’s first as a general manager and, like many newly appointed chief execs, his first job involved taking out the trash left behind by the previous administration.

There was a lot of it. In 2014, largely under Josh Byrnes, they finished 77-85, San Diego’s fourth straight sub-.500 season. That August, team owner Peter Seidler fired Byrnes and appointed Preller, then a 41-year-old assistant GM with the Texas Rangers.

Preller’s remaking was so thorough that, by the end of the 2016 season, only six players remained from the major league roster he had inherited. Sixteen had been traded away, nine were released to be signed by another team, and four left baseball altogether.

The ridding of non-productive bodies proved far easier than acquiring useful ones. By trading players to new teams, he cleared the payroll of a dozen names, eight of whom performed poorly for their new clubs. Those eight productive departures included catcher Rene Rivera (-3.1 WAA for Tampa Bay), Jace Peterson (-1.4 for Atlanta), and Cameron Maybin (-1.2 for Atlanta.)

His other wise decision was to walk away from 2014 Padre Jeff Francoeur, who signed instead with Philadelphia. There, Francoeur played a little bit more than half time, and delivered a very ordinary -1.8 WAA.

Preller’s 2015 additions were less dramatic; acquiring and developing talent would take time. The most immediately impactful of them, Justin Upton (+2.4), came over in a trade and had an exceptional season, but was gone by 2016.  

Long term, Preller’s most important 2015 move involved a trade he might like to have back. In December of 2014, Preller had concluded a three-team trade with the Washington Nationals and Tampa Bay Rays that brought San Diego four players, among them touted outfield prospect Wil Myers. One of the players sent by the Padres to Washington as part of that trade was minor league shortstop Trea Turner, who is today recognized as among the game’s best middle infielders.

 4. Kevin Towers, 1998, +9.0 (14-19-4)

By 1998, Towers had built a team that sailed to its third NL championship, and in the process set a franchise record with 98 victories. The Padres seized first place in the division on April 5 and never trailed from that point on.

In December of 1997, when the defending world champion Florida Marlins signaled that their talent base was for sale, Towers was one of the first to swoop in. At the cost of promising first baseman Derrek Lee and Rafael Medina, he landed Kevin Brown, one of the premier right-handed starters of the time.

Brown, the 1996 ERA champion, was 33-19 in two seasons with Florida, not counting his four starts in the 1997 postseason. With the Padres in 1998, he continued that excellence; an 18-7 record and 2.38 ERA in 35 starts covering 257 innings. It added up to a +6.6 WAA and brought Brown home third in the 1998 Cy Young Award voting.

That deal triggered what turned out to be Towers’ best season in team-to-team dealing. He acquired 13 players via trade, purchase or waiver claim, and while only three of those produced positive value, thanks to Brown, their cumulative impact was +6.3 games.

The other two positive trades both advantaged San Diego’s bullpen. Donne Wall and Dan Miceli both came over in a November trade with the Tigers, Wall appearing in 46 games with a 2.43 WAA, and Miceli making 67 appearances. Their collective value was +2.1 WAA.

3. Jack McKeon, 1989, +10.7 (17-12-1)

Coming off his strong 1988 season, McKeon set his winter sights on the NL West title. The Padres eventually fell short, finishing three games behind the Giants. This time, three moves drove the improvement.

In December of 1988, McKeon signed left-handed pitcher Bruce Hurst to a five-year, $11 million contract. Recognized as one of the game’s best left-handed arms, Hurst had 18 games against just six losses for Boston in 1987, and, in 1986, he helped pitch the Sox within one game of the World Series championship.

With the Padres in 1989, Hurst fulfilled every expectation. In 33 starts, a league-leading 10 of them complete games, he compiled a 15-11 record and 2.69 ERA, the best of his 10 major league seasons. He worked 245 innings, all of that amounting to an exceptional +4.7 WAA. Only Bret Saberhagen, Orel Hershiser and teammate Ed Whitson delivered more mound value than Hurst in 1989.

McKeon’s second big strike was the October 1988 trade with New York that sent slugging first baseman Jack Clark to San Diego. Clark only hit .242, but he did produce 26 home runs with 94 RBI. More importantly, Clark intimidated pitchers, who walked him a league-high 132 times, 18 of them intentionally. That helped drive Clark’s value to +1.9 WAA.

The third major improvement came from the farm system. Right-hander Greg Harris, who had made a brief debut in 1988, slid into the bullpen and worked a prodigious 135 innings over 56 appearances. His 2.60 ERA included six saves and a +2.5 WAA.

2. Kevin Towers, 2006, +15.8 (30-17-8)

As the 2006 season approached, Towers faced the task of following up on a division championship and playoff campaign, albeit one that had ended in a three-game sweep at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals.

But it was a roster that needed a lot of work. By the time Towers completed his tasks, eight members of the starting nine plus two rotation pieces had been locked in, and the game’s best closer committed to staying in San Diego.

Free agency was a godsend. Over the offseason, Towers signed veteran catcher Mike Piazza and outfielders Brian Giles and Dave Roberts, a threesome who combined to generate 4.1 WAA. He also re-signed Trevor Hoffman, who had piled up 434 saves for the Padres since 1993, and who, at age 38, would add 46 more in 2006.   

A January trade landed rookie first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and pitcher Chris Young from the Rangers. Gonzalez would bat .304 with 24 home runs and 82 RBI on his way to becoming a star. Young made 31 starts supporting the team’s ace, Jake Peavy, with an 11-5 record and 3.46 ERA. That trade was worth another +2.7 WAA.

By the time that trade was completed, Towers had already obtained outfielder Mike Cameron in a straight-up swap of outfielders with the Mets, Xavier Nady going to New York. Cameron was vital to the Padres’ 2006 success, with 22 home runs, 83 RBI and an .819 OPS. He added another +2.5 WAA.

The farm system delivered a pair of useful supporting pieces. Josh Barfield came up to play second base, hitting .280 while fielding well enough to generate +1.3 WAA. Clay Hensley held down a rotation starter spot with an adequate (although not spectacular) 11-12 record and 3.76 ERA.

The revamped Padres again won the NL West, this time by a tiebreaker over the Dodgers who, like San Diego, finished with an 88-74 record. In close races of that sort, the work of a GM can be pivotal. Towers’ work improved his team by +15.8 games and, since San Diego qualified for postseason play by only three games, it can fairly be said that the moves he made were the difference.

Unfortunately  it did not help in the postseason, when the Padres again were eliminated by St. Louis, this time in four games.

1. Kevin Towers, 1996, +19.2 (19-9-3)

The 1996 season was Towers’ first as general manager; he had been appointed the previous offseason to replace Randy Smith, who left for a similar position in Detroit. It also marked San Diego’s first postseason adventure since 1984, and Towers’ reshaping of the roster had everything to do with that success.

Two lockups of potential talent losses were pivotal to the Padres’ transformation from a 70-74 club of one season earlier. Both third baseman Ken Caminiti and outfielder Steve Finley had come over from Houston in an 11-player swap in December of 1994. Caminiti and Finley were both potential free agents, and Towers re-signed both of them to extensions.

The gain to the Padres was immediate. Caminiti hit .326 with 40 home runs and 130 RBI, easily the best season of his career and one that would win him the National League’s Most Valuable Player award.

Finley played center field brilliantly and batted .298 with 30 homers and 95 RBI. Together, Caminiti and Finley were worth +9.1 WAA to San Diego’s 1996 season.

Towers also completed the process of extending the team’s face, outfielder Tony Gwynn. Although there was little likelihood of Gwynn actually leaving San Diego, formalizing his return was still important; Gwynn batted .353 as the regular right fielder.

Towers also re-signed veteran left-hander Fernando Valenzuela and in return got a 13-8 record and 3.62 ERA in 31 starts.  

First base had been an unproductive position since the trade of Fred McGriff to Atlanta. To remedy that, Towers swung an offseason trade with the Kansas City Royals that landed veteran Wally Joyner.    He batted .277 with a .781 OPS, good for another +1.2 WAA.

The combined record of Towers’ reshaping of the roster he inherited improved the Padres by a massive 19.2 games statistically. Since the Padres only won the division by one game and only qualified for postseason by three, it’s safe to say that Towers’ moves manipulated his team into the playoffs.

Once there, unfortunately, they were knocked out in the first round by the Cardinals in three straight games.