Rockies vs. Padres prediction and odds for Friday, March 31 (Bombs Away for Slam Diego)
By Josh Yourish
The Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres start the MLB season with a four-game weekend series that began on Opening Day Thursday and continues on Friday with Kyle Freeland on the mound for Colorado and Nick Martinez getting the start for San Diego.
Freeland made 31 starts for the Rockies a year ago, and this will be his seventh year as a member of the Colorado pitching staff. He had a 9-11 record last season with a 4.53 ERA. Martinez on the other side made 10 starts a year ago, his first year in the majors since a four-year stint with Texas from 2014-17. He had a 3.47 ERA and went 4-4.
Let’s get into the odds for this matchup out in San Diego on Friday night as the MLB season really gets underway.
Rockies vs. Padres odds, run line and total
Rockies vs. Padres prediction and pick
It’s interesting to see Martinez starting for the Padres in Game 2 of the season.
He had the 10 starts at the beginning of last year, but from June on, he became a reliever full time and made 37 appearances out of the bullpen. Now, he’s back starting, but it’s somewhat unclear what the plan will be for Martinez. In Spring Training he made four starts and pitched 14.0 innings after departing the World Baseball Classic early to return to the Padres. I expect him to be used as somewhat of an opener and San Diego to let their bullpen cover most of the game. With Josh Hader, Robert Suarez, Luis Garcia, and Drew Pomeranz and others out there, they’ll be just fine.
I'm not counting on a pitcher's duel anyway.
In terms of the advanced numbers, Kyle Freeland was one of the absolute worst pitchers in the MLB last season. He was in the 10th percentile or worse in expected ERA, expected slugging, expected batting average and he was 14th percentile in strikeout percentage, and 13th in whiff rate. He didn’t miss bats or barrels for that matter, his average exit velocity was 89.8, which was bottom 16% in the MLB.
With Kyle Freeland on the mound I expect Slam Diego to tee off and the over is my best bet.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change