Rangers vs. Padres prediction and odds for Friday, July 28 (Value on total)

While Joe Musgrove is pitching at an elite level, the value is on the over.

Jun 29, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove (44)
Jun 29, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove (44) / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres continue to push for a playoff spot, but need to start stringing together wins in a hurry, five games below .500 entering Friday's series opener against the Texas Rangers.

The Rangers are in a heated AL West race with the Astros and will look to recover from dropping two of three to Houston out west against a Padres team that will start stud right hander Joe Musgrove. The Rangers will counter with Dane Dunning, who will look to avoid some underlying regression.

How should we bet this matchup with Musgrove entering in pristine form?

Here are the odds and our best bet:

Rangers vs. Padres odds, run line and total

Rangers vs. Padres prediction and pick

While Musgrove has been on fire over the last two months, pitching to a 2.07 ERA over the last 10 starts, allowing a .235 batting average over that span. However, that hasn't stopped runs from being scored, as the average score of those ten games is over nine runs per game.

After Musgrove, it's a league average Padres bullpen in terms of unit ERA, which could be in trouble against a Rangers lineup that is tops in stats such as batting average and wRC+. If the team doesn't get to Musgrove, the visitors can knock around a mediocre bullpen.

Meanwhile, the Padres should get to Dunning, who has been smoke and mirrors all season. The right-hander has an ERA of 3.18, but its supported by a xERA of 4.97 as he has avoided hard contact with a low home run to fly ball rate (less than nine percentage) and has stranded 77% of batters.

San Diego enters in good form over the last month or so, 10th in on-base percentage over the last 30 days, per MLB.com. The team will challenge Dunning's inability to generate strikeouts (less than six per nine innings) as the Padres strikeout at the 19th highest rate in the big leagues and walks at the highest rate.

Don't be scared by Musgrove's elite form and go over the total on Friday night.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.