Projecting Padres' 2024 (and 2025) rotation after surprise Dylan Cease blockbuster

For those who thought the the San Diego Padres were hitting the reset button after trading Juan Soto to the New York Yankees, think again. The Friars are going all in after trading for Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Dylan Cease on Wednesday.

This was a bold and expensive move for the Padres. While Cease's $8 million salary in 2024 is very affordable considering his level of productivity, San Diego gave up several top prospects in order to bring the White Sox's ace to southern California. The Padres shipped pitchers Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte, and Steven Wilson, along with outfield prospect Samuel Zavala, to the south side of Chicago.

While Cease may not make the trip to South Korea for the Padres' opening series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, he'll unequivocally be the Friars' No. 1 starter for the next two seasons. With Cease under team control for the next two seasons, what will will the Padres starting rotation look like in 2024 and 2025?

Projecting Padres' 2024 (and 2025) rotation after surprise Dylan Cease blockbuster

Cease will be the Padres ace. Last season was a down year for the right-hander, but the Friars are hopeful that Cease bounces back to form. In 2022, Cease was the runner-up for the AL Cy Young Award.

Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove are under contract for the next several seasons. Darvish's six-year, $108 million deal runs through 2028, while Musgrove's five-year, $100 million extension allows him to enter free agency one year sooner. Both pitchers will be part of the Friars starting rotation for the next two seasons.

San Diego Padres 2024 starting rotation

Michael King could be the difference between the Padres rotation being among the best in the National League or just hanging out in the middle of the pack. King was one of the major pieces in the Soto deal earlier this offseason. With Thorpe gone, King becomes the one player who must live up to expectations in order to call that trade a win for the Friars.

This season, look for Matt Waldron to break camp as the Padres No. 5 starter. Waldron has pitched well this spring, and should be given an extended look at the backend of the rotation. One could make the argument for Jhony Brito as well, but manager Mike Shildt could easily plug the former Yankees farmhand into the bullpen as well.

San Diego Padres 2025 starting rotation

Heading into the 2025 season, look for the top of the rotation to remain the same. Cease, Darvish, Musgrove, and King. After sending Thorpe and Iriarte to the South Side of Chicago, the fifth starter is a bit of a question mark moving forward.

With as quickly as the Padres seemingly move prospects through the farm system, don't be shocked if Robby Snelling is competing for a spot in the 2025 rotation. The Padres need to find an effective left-handed pitcher to add to the starting rotation. Snelling made it to Double-A in 2023, and will likely be knocking on the door of the major leagues by the end of the 2024 season.

Even without Thorpe and Iriarte, the Padres starting rotation looks to be in good hands for the next couple of years. The team's depth was definitely altered by the trade, but that was a risk A.J. Preller and the Padres ownership was willing to take.

More Padres News from Friars on Base