Predicting the Padres' next move after their troubling start to the offseason

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We are approximately six weeks away from the start of spring training and the San Diego Padres have some work to do on revamping their 2024 roster. The dawn of a new season is a good time to speculate on what player moves are next.

There is still time in the offseason, but the sand is slowly leaving the hourglass. Friars President of Baseball Operations and General Manager A.J. Preller is not shy to turn over his roster in one day. He has done it twice during his tenure as a Padres executive. Expect the unexpected from Preller.

The Friar Faithful expect team ownership to be fully committed on improving the roster by putting all the options on the table. Of course, a number of variables will determine what is the Padres next move.

The Padres Need Two Experienced Starting Pitchers

The projected 2024 Padres starting rotation:

Joe Musgrove
Yu Darvish
Michael King
?
?

Injuries and innings limitations are the concerns for the Friars starters in 2024. Musgrove (broken toe and shoulder) made just 17 starts with a 3.05 ERA last season. Darvish (elbow) made 24 starts with a 4.56 ERA. Their absences from the lineup made life difficult for the Padres last season. Both pitchers must have a relatively injury-free season for the Friars to have any shot of a winning record.

King had a 2.75 ERA in a combined bullpen/starter role (9 starts) with the 2023 New York Yankees. He recorded 104.2 IP last season, which doubled his prior season total. The jury is still out if King can handle the workload of being a major league starting pitcher. He may need to skip a start or two to be effective all season.

Still, the Friars need to acquire two innings-eating starters that bolster the back end of the rotation. They do not need to be flashy or dominant but provide solid five or six innings of work for each start. It will help to lessen the bullpen's workload over a 162-game schedule.

Expect the Padres to pursue a couple of experienced pitchers on one-year deals. Free agents Marcus Stroman, Domingo German, or Shota Imanaga could become potential targets. The Padres have not confirmed if they had internal conversations on these starting pitchers. But no starter should be ruled out.

On the trade front, the Friars could set their eyes on Milwaukee Brewers ace Corbin Burnes. He is eligible to become a free agent after next season. He recorded a 3.39 ERA in 32 starts. It is a tough decision for the Brewers to choose trading Burnes now or at the deadline. He is a bargain at the current salary market rate, as Burnes will earn $15 million in 2024.

Another candidate is Chicago White Sox RHP Dylan Cease, who is coming off a disappointing 2023 season. He was 7-9 with a 4.58 ERA in 33 starts, which is a far cry from his stellar 2022 campaign. Cease was 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA in 32 starts. It was good enough for him to finish second behind Houston Astros Justin Verlander in the American League Cy Young Award voting.

Acquiring Another Bullpen Option

The Padres' relief corps will have a different look in 2024. Gone are Josh Hader, Nick Martinez, and Tim Hill. Hello to Yuki Matsui and Woo-Suk Go who should fortify the pen. The signing of Matsui gives the Friars a lethal lefty-righty combo with Robert Suarez. Adding another set-up reliever provides a smooth bridge to the Padres new late-inning signings.

Team management could look to add an experienced bullpen arm like David Robertson or Matt Moore. Robertson is a former closer who has worked as an eighth-inning set-up reliever for Hall-of-Famer Mariano Rivera during their days together with the Yankees. Heading into his 16th season, Robertson is still efficient on the mound.

Moore is a former starter who can provide multiple innings out of the pen. It will come in handy if a starter falters on the mound. Last season, Moore was outstanding at three stops (Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Guardians, and Miami Marlins) by posting a 2.77 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP in 48.2 IP.

A wild card option for the bullpen could be free agent right-handed pitcher Yariel Rodriquez, who has been dominant coming out of the pen in Japan baseball. Rodriquez posted a 1.15 ERA with a 27.5 strikeout rate with the Chunichi Dragons in 2022. His explosive fastball would bolster the pen’s late-innings efficiency.

After participating in last year’s World Baseball Classic, he sought his release from the Dragons by sitting out last season. Instead of playing, Rodriquez hosted several workouts for major league teams in the Dominican Republic.

Trading for an Outfielder

It is not out of the question for the Padres to be in the trade market for an outfielder. The preferable option is acquiring a high-contact, lefty hitter. St. Louis Cardinals center fielder Dylan Carlson is a perfect addition to the Friars lineup.

The switch-hitter’s availability should not be a surprise, as Lars Nootbar has become the Cardinals everyday center fielder. But Carlson is damaged goods as he is recovering from ankle surgery. It prematurely ended a dismal 2023 season that saw Carlson hit .219 with 5 HRs and 27 RBIs in 76 games.

Despite all his struggles, Carlson will have several suitors looking to acquire him. He is a decent defensive outfielder who makes a modest salary ($1.8 million) in today’s baseball. Plus, Carlson will be under team control for the next three seasons.

The Padres are committed to building for the long term, but they expect to contend in 2024. Their eyes are on the present and the future.

Preller acquired pitching depth in the Juan Soto trade with the Yankees. Drew Thorpe, Randy Vasquez, and Jhony Brito could become trade bait to acquire Burnes, Cease, or Carlson. If a potential trade include all three needs, the Friars may add Jake Croenenworth to the package.

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The Padres Need Two Experienced Starting Pitchers

Acquiring Another Bullpen Option

Trading for an Outfielder

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