Potential Pirates' decision would effectively hand NL ROY Award to Jackson Merrill

Padres fans have already made their minds up when it comes to which players should win this year's National League Rookie of the Year award. But unfortunately, the fine folks in San Diego don't get a vote.

The 2024 NL Rookie of the Year is basically a two-horse race at the moment between Padres centerfielder Jackson Merrill and Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes. Merrill has been part of the Padres roster since Opening Day and his impact on this year's team has been tremendous. Merrill has been worth 3.7 fWAR compared to Skenes' 2.6 fWAR.

And while the Friar faithful believe that this race should be an open-and-shut case with Merrill walking away with the trophy, the race may be closer than they think. But, there's been a lot of scuttlebutt lately surrounding a potential decision on the part of the Pirates' front office that would effectively hand the award to Merrill.

Padres OF Jackson Merrill will be the runaway winner for NL Rookie of the Year if the Pirates shut down Paul Skenes

With the Pirates all but out of the MLB postseason picture, there are a lot of rumblings about Pittsburgh shutting down Skenes before the 2024 season expires. The Bucs' playoff odds are virtually nonexistent with FanGraphs giving Pittsburgh a 0.3% shot of making it to October.

To date, Skenes has started 16 games and logged 98 innings in the big leagues. Combine that with his 27 1/3 innings of work at Triple-A to begin the season, and he's nearly surpassed the number of innings he pitched in 2023 while at LSU and in the minor leagues.

And while the San Diego fanbase assumes Merrill is a shoo-in for NL Rookie of the Year honors, it's impossible to ignore the hype surrounding Skenes. Such is the case for All-Star selections, offseason awards can oftentimes be handed out based on popularity rather than production.

The race for NL Rookie of the Year may very well come down to the final month of the season. Merrill has been on fire during the month of August with a 1.034 OPS and four home runs in 16 games. Skenes, on the other hand is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in three starts this month. If these numbers continue to trend in this direction, it won't matter if the Pirates shut down Skenes or not.

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