Padres' trade for Jason Adam actually might have been a classic AJ Preller heist

In the immediate aftermath of the San Diego Padres trading for reliever Jason Adam, experts started chiming in that AJ Preller may have committed a massive overpay. Adam is a very solid reliever with team control, but it is was inevitable that some eyebrows would be raised after San Diego gave up their Nos. 3 and 8 prospects in pitcher Dylan Lesko and outfielder Homer Bush Jr. for a non-closer.

However, this may be a lesson to not completely trust prospect rankings when evaluating a trade package.

As time passed after the trade, more and more people with intimate knowledge of the minor leagues starting chiming in that it may be the Padres who come out on top when all is said and done.

Whenever a trade happens, fans instantly look to prospect rankings and where said player was drafted. In the case of Dylan Lesko, he was as high as No. 3 on organizational rankings and was a highly-touted first-round pick back in 2022 who would have been selected higher if he didn't have Tommy John surgery that spring. No one denies his raw talent, but perhaps that my not equate to execution.

Padres may not have given up as much as you think in Jason Adam trade

In Lesko's case, his production in the minor leagues has not matched his talent. His MiLB ERA through two seasons as a pro is north of 6.00, and while he has been striking guys out, his command has taken a huge step back from where it was before he got hurt in high school. According to multiple prospect experts after the trade, Lesko was set for a major downgrade in rankings based on what scouts have been seeing in 2024.

Bush Jr. is another example where his top-10 prospect status is a little misleading. Sure, he has some bat to ball skills, is quite fast, and is a very capable outfield defender. However, he also hasn't been able to consistently hit the ball hard, which greatly reduces his ceiling as a big league hitter.

This is a trade that may work out for both sides. The Padres got a high-quality reliever to reinforce their bullpen through 2026. As for the Rays, few teams are better at fixing broken players than they are. This could be a trade that makes Padres fans wince if Lesko and/or Bush Jr. go wild in Tampa, but that doesn't mean the thought process wasn't sound here.

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