One of the lows from the San Diego Padres' first half — of which there were several — was the revelation that Fernando Tatis Jr. had a stress reaction in his leg that threatened to keep him out for a long time. Stress reactions like his are rare in baseball and can be precursors to stress fractures, which are especially bad when we're talking about the femur, so there was a chance that Tatis Jr. could miss most of the second half of the 2024 season.
While the most recent update from Tatis Jr. himself suggested he was out of the woods when it comes to the worst-case scenario and was feeling better, the real test will be when he gets an MRI to see how the injury is actually healing. That MRI was scheduled to happen during the All-Star break, so we should get even more clarity soon as to when Tatis Jr. could return.
Results of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s MRI could make or break the Padres' season
It isn't an exaggeration that the results of Tatis Jr.'s exam could swing the fortunes of the Padres' season one way or the other. If the scan finds that he is healing quickly, San Diego could get an MVP-level talent back in their lineup for most of the second half and the Padres could make a real run.
However, if the scan reveals that he is healing slowly or even that there is a stress fracture that isn't particularly symptomatic yet, San Diego's lineup becomes a lot less scary the rest of the way. The Padres will remain good, but they would really have to hope that Jackson Merrill and Jurickson Profar keep up their All-Star-level production and Manny Machado gets back on track to have a fighting chance at a playoff spot.
There are, of course, more variables in play for the Padres. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish coming back healthy would take a lot of pressure off of Tatis Jr.'s return and we still don't know what the front office will do at the trade deadline. However, there is probably no single factor that matters more to San Diego's 2024 season than Tatis Jr.'s scan this week.