Marlins vs. Padres prediction and odds for Tuesday, Aug. 22 (Blake Snell has major advantage)

If the San Diego Padres are going to make a run at a wild card spot in the National League, they’ll need to handle business against the teams ahead of them, which includes Tuesday’s opponent, the Miami Marlins. 

Miami is 1.5 games out of the final spot in the NL while the Padres come into this game 5.5 games back of the San Francisco Giants. 

The bright side for the Padres is that they have their ace, Blake Snell, on the mound in this game. Snell has been elite since the start of June, posting a 1.35 ERA in 14 starts. Despite that, the Padres are just 12-13 in his 25 outings this season. 

Marlins vs. Padres probable pitchers for Tuesday, Aug. 22

• Marlins: Jesus Luzardo (8-8, 4.13 ERA)
• Padres: Blake Snell (10-8, 2.65 ERA)

Miami counters with young lefty Jesus Luzardo, who had been having a solid season up until August. In this month, Luzardo’s season-long ERA has risen from 3.38 to 4.13. 

Can he turn things around in this matchup? 

Oddsmakers aren’t sold, as the Padres enter this matchup as sizeable home favorites: 

Marlins vs. Padres odds, run line and total

Marlins vs. Padres prediction and pick

Even though the Padres haven’t dominated Snell’s starts from a winning perspective, I love them on Tuesday night. 

Luzardo has been terrible in August, posting an 11.68 ERA in three starts. Here are a few of his key statistics over that stretch: 

Jesus Luzardo August stats

• 12.1 innings pitched
• 23 hits allowed
• 17 runs (16 earned)
• 6 walks
• 13 strikeouts
• FIP: 11.05
• Opponent batting average: .397

Yikes. Those numbers are downright awful, and now Luzardo is facing a Padres team that mashes left-handed pitching, ranking No. 5 in the league in OPS against them. 

This season marks the highest innings count Luzardo has had in his MLB career, so it’s possible that fatigue is setting in for the young lefty. 

Meanwhile, Snell has been the definition of consistent, allowing three or fewer runs in each of his last 16 starts. In fact, just one of those outings has come with him allowing more than two runs. 

The Padres should be in the driver’s seat at home to take the second game of this series. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.