Here's why the Padres can (and will) overtake Dodgers in NL West race

Against all odds and thanks to a heater to end all heaters, the San Diego Padres have turned the NL West into a true dogfight this season. Coming into 2024, the Dodgers were far and away the favorites to win the division with good reason as they have been the division's Final Boss for years now, and they also went out and added Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow among others during the offseason. On paper, they should have been the favorites, especially with the Padres losing so many key players.

However, the Padres didn't stay idle and simply let the Dodgers run away with things. They added Dylan Cease and Luis Arráez early and completely overhauled their bullpen at the trade deadline. Between those moves, Jurickson Profar's unexpected All-Star turn, and Jackson Merrill's ascension, San Diego has kept pace with LA and steadily gained ground on them in the second half.

With the Padres (and Diamondbacks) just 2.5 games back of the Dodgers as of August 15, is it actually possible for San Diego to overtake LA in the division? The short answer is yes, but it isn't going to be easy.

Padres' depth and pitching gives them a key edge over Dodgers for rest of season

The Dodgers are a very good baseball team and anyone arguing otherwise is lying to themselves. Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are MVP-caliber talents and as long as those guys are in LA's lineup, they are capable of beating any team on any given night regardless of what the rest of the Dodgers' roster is doing. There is a reason why the Dodgers are in first place right now and you can circle those three names as the biggest reason why.

However, the Dodgers' depth is fair to question. Beyond the Big Three, Teoscar Hernandez is having a pretty good season, Will Smith has had an up-and-down showing, but the rest of their lineup is not all that scary. Their pitching staff also looks very vulnerable as their rotation and bullpen have been absolutely ravaged by injuries and their current hope is that Walker Buehler and Yamamoto can come back and contribute and that Clayton Kershaw's body can hold out for just a little longer. Not ideal, to say the least.

Meanwhile, the Padres have a lineup full of dangerous guys led by Jackson Merrill and Jurickson Profar. Manny Machado has posted a 132 wRC+ or higher every month since June, Donovan Solano continues to be under-appreciated, Arráez is hitting again, and the Padres have a wild card up their sleeve with all-world talent Fernando Tatis Jr. likely to return this season. Combine that with a San Diego rotation that is playing their brains out and one of the best bullpens in baseball, and you have what is likely to be a more consistently good team than the Dodgers.

Ultimately, the division race is going to be close with Arizona inserting themselves into the conversation. If the Dodgers get hot, they are going to be tough to oust from the top spot because they have elite-level talent. Based on what we know right now though, it seems like San Diego might be in the actual best position to win the NL West given how they are set up for the long haul and playing right now.

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