Evaluating the prospect package the Padres surrendered in the Dylan Cease trade

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On Wednesday evening, the San Diego Padres shocked everyone by trading for Dylan Cease. Yes, the Padres have been connected to players all offseason, but the general tenor of this offseason has been more about what the Padres have lost than what they have added. To say that trading for a guy like Cease wasn't really on fans' radars when spring training started is an understatement.

As it turns out, losing 3/5ths of a team's rotation is hard to cover with just internal options, and that is doubly difficult when many of the Padres' best pitching prospects were deemed to be not quite ready and sent back over to minor league camp during spring training. The end result was a strong likelihood that the Padres were having to consider external options, but few would have predicted that San Diego would end up with the biggest name on the pitcher trade market.

To land Cease, the Padres certainly had to pay up a bit. Cease comes with two full years of team control and is only making $8 million in 2023, not to mention the fact that the White Sox have been making heavy trade demands all offseason when it comes to Cease. Here is a look at the prospects that the Padres had to give up to land Dylan Cease, as well as a look at whether or not the price San Diego paid was a good one.

Padres Prospects: San Diego sends 4 players to White Sox in Dylan Cease trade

Jairo Iriarte

We'll start with a familiar name to Padres fans in Iriarte, who San Diego signed out of Venezuela for just $75,000. Iriarte was a consensus top 10 prospect in the Padres' farm system thanks to his tremendous raw stuff, including a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and touches higher than that, a slider with tons of break, and a changeup that has promise, even if it lags behind his fastball/slider combo.

The issue with Iriarte has simply been throwing strikes, and many have had him pegged as a bullpen arm in the big leagues. If he ends up as a reliever, losing him doesn't feel quite as bad, even though he could end up being a strong late-inning option. However, if the White Sox keep him in the rotation and he takes a step forward with his command, this loss could end up being painful.

Drew Thorpe

One of the big pieces the Padres got in return for Juan Soto earlier this offseason, including Thorpe in this trade is somewhat puzzling. He had a good spring and has a pair of swing and miss pitches in his slider and excellent changeup, as well as the ability to control all of his pitches. On the surface, Thorpe is exactly the type of guy that one would think the Padres would want to keep, given how much their rotation had been devastated by free agency.

However, San Diego clearly disagrees. It is true that in the big leagues, Thorpe is an unknown commodity, and in Cease, the Padres get a guy that should at least be a very solid No. 2 starter, if not more than that. One can quibble over whether or not the Padres improved enough with Cease to justify the cost, but you have to give up good players to get good players and, in this case, Thorpe was the odd man out.

Samuel Zavala

Zavala is just an all-around solid bat. While he hasn't really hit for a particular high average in the minors, that is primarily due to the fact that he is so adept at getting on base via walks. At just 19 years old, Zavala's approach at the plate is beyond his years, and he has shown a wide-ranging toolkit as well, with both his power and speed showing up in games in 2023 during his climb to High-A.

Zavala is still a ways away from a big league roster spot, and with San Diego having short-term needs, he is the kind of prospect to move. He has upside, but maybe not as high as other outfield options down the line. Certainly a significant loss, but not one from which there is no recovery.

Steven Wilson

For good measure, the Padres threw in reliever Steven Wilson. Wilson has been decidedly medium in his two seasons with San Diego. Over the course of 102 appearances with the Padres, Wilson put up a 3.48 ERA and 4.33 FIP while striking out around a batter an inning. Walks have really held Wilson back, as his 4.0 BB/9 walk rate is right at the border of what is acceptable, given his other numbers.

While not a huge piece of San Diego's bullpen, Wilson did cover a lot of innings over the past couple of years. It won't be trivial to replace that production, and adds to the puzzling nature of this move from a pure net value perspective.

Grading the Padres in the Dylan Cease trade

The Padres got a good pitcher in Cease without question. Reasonable people can disagree as to whether or not he has ace potential or if he is more a solid No. 2/No. 3 starter that misses bats, but the guy clearly has arm talent. While he does represent an immediate upgrade to the Padres' rotation, the cost for a guy who has seen his stuff tick downward in recent years leaves something to be desired.

Giving up a top 100 prospect who probably would have gotten reasonably close to what Cease will give on the mound in Thorpe hurts the move here, as that removes an arm from San Diego's rotation that would have been valuable depth alongside Cease. Zavala could end up a top 100 prospect if he continues to progress at the plate, and Iriarte has as much raw potential as anyone in this trade --including Cease. It feels like the Padres forced this deal to make SOMETHING happen, but they paid a heavy price for what might turn out to be a relatively small net gain.

Grade: B-

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