It’s very early in the year and already the Milwaukee Brewers are running into injury issues in their starting rotation. With Brandon Woodruff on the 15-day IL, they are still undecided on who will start tonight against the San Diego Padres.
The Brewers lost with Woodruff’s replacement on the mound against Arizona yesterday to fall to 8-4. The Padres dropped two of three in New York to the Mets and head home for this four-game weekend series at 7-6.
Nick Martinez is slated to take the mound for San Diego for the third time this year. Martinez carries with him a 6.17 ERA and an 0-1 record.
Let’s get into the odds for this game in Southern California, the first of a big NL series in April.
Brewers vs. Padres odds, run line and total
Brewers vs. Padres prediction and pick
Last year, Martinez made 10 starts before getting sent back into the bullpen for his final 37 appearances of the season.
The bullpen is where he had most of his success, he just doesn’t seem to have the ability to be a successful major league starter. Last year, he had a 4.30 ERA as a starter and gave up nine home runs in 52.1 innings, while he had a 2.67 ERA out of the pen and gave up just six homers in 54.0 innings.
He also walked 27 as a starter and only 14 as a reliever. This year he has a 13.5% walk rate which is 22nd percentile in the MLB.
The Brewers simply don’t have a starter for this one yet, so of course I’d rather have Martinez who is a subpar starter than a question mark on the mound.
For the Padres, Xander Bogaerts is hitting the ball well, and Juan Soto is finally starting to look like Nationals Juan Soto as a San Diego Padres instead of whatever version of him they got last season. Manny Machado is slumping right now, and as a team they’re 16th in OPS and 19th in runs scored.
They need more offense to support Martinez, but I expect them to get it.
With a reliever cosplaying as a starter and a bullpen game likely, I’ll take the over for Game 1 of this four-gamer in San Diego.
Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change