3 San Diego Padres predictions we wish we'd have made before the season began
The San Diego Padres got off to a rough start to this season. After a loss in Chicago on Tuesday night, the Padres find themselves at the 12-13 mark 25 games into the season. While it was nice to see this team get back to .500 with a series win in Arizona over the weekend, a record close to even isn't exactly what fans envisioned. The Padres were just three wins shy of the National League pennant last season and got better over the offseason.
San Diego is still trying to figure out exactly who they are. We expect to see Josh Hader return to his elite form, and expected Xander Bogaerts to be great for the Padres but there are certain things happening that we just didn't expect. Some good, some bad.
Here are three predictions we wish we would've made prior to the start of the season.
1) San Diego Padres prediction we wish we made: They wouldn't become a juggernaut right away
The talent on this team isn't hard to see. There are All-Stars everywhere. San Diego had three All-Stars last season, and that's not including guys like Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto, and Josh Hader, who were All-Stars for other teams. It's also not including guys like Fernando Tatis Jr., Yu Darvish, and Blake Snell, who have been All-Stars before and certainly have the talent to get back to the Midsummer Classic.
The Padres even added around the stars that they had with guys like Nelson Cruz, Matt Carpenter, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha. This roster, when healthy, is loaded.
Unfortunately, the Padres have not been healthy to begin the season. Tatis Jr, of course, still had a little bit of time with his suspension so he was out. Joe Musgrove fractured his toe in spring training. Both of these players just returned in Arizona.
The Padres have also gotten extremely slow starts from some of their stars. Juan Soto does have a .355 OBP but is hitting just .188. Manny Machado has a .527 OPS with one home run. Blake Snell has an ERA of 5.48 through his first five starts. It's been rough out here.
When the stars start playing like stars, and the Padres get healthy, that's when you'll see this team become the juggernaut you expected. 12-13 is disappointing, but there's no reason to believe the Padres aren't for real.
2) Padres prediction we wish we made: Seth Lugo would be a legit starting pitcher
The Seth Lugo signing was an interesting one. He's a guy who had always wanted to be a starter, but struggled in that role as a Met and was a really solid reliever for many years in New York. He came up as a starter and certainly has the stuff to start, but part of what made him a great reliever was how different he was from a prototypical reliever.
Lugo has a 4.18 career ERA in his 42 starts, and that's including the four he's made this season. As a reliever, he has a 2.91 ERA in 237 appearances. One is far better than the other.
The Padres lacked depth in their rotation so they took a flyer on Lugo. It's only been one month but boy, has that worked out thus far.
Lugo has made four starts for San Diego and has allowed three runs or fewer in all of them. He's gone at least six innings in three of the four, and it's not like he's faced horrible teams either.
Lugo's second start of the season came in Atlanta. The result? One run in six innings. He pitched two-run ball in six innings in his most recent start in Arizona. He threw 100 pitches in that start, the second time he's reached that mark this season.
I thought maybe by the time Musgrove returned from the injured list that Lugo would revert to a bullpen spot, but that won't be happening anytime soon. He looks like a legitimate starter, and the Padres might've struck gold with the two year deal they gave him.
3) Padres prediction we wish we made: Xander Bogaerts league MVP candidate
Xander Bogaerts has been the one constant in what's been a frustrating season thus far for the Padres. Musgrove and Tatis have missed most of the season, while Machado and Soto look like shells of themselves. Outside of a hot start from Nelson Cruz and decent output from Jake Cronenworth, Xander Bogaerts has been the offense.
San Diego ranks 24th in the league in runs scored and third-to-last in the National League. Bogaerts is doing the best job he can to help them out by having arguably the best start to a season in his career.
He's slashing .330/.421/.538 with five home runs and 12 RBI through the team's first 25 games. He's one of two Padres to appear in every game, and is the team leader in virtually every offensive category. Bogaerts has 10 more hits than the player with the second-most on the team (Machado), and his five home runs lead the club as well.
Not only is Bogaerts blowing his teammates out of the water, but he's also been one of the best players in the National League. His 1.5 fWAR is tied for third among MLB players. His 166 WRC+ is eighth in the NL. He'd absolutely be in the discussion for NL MVP if the season ended today.
I was someone who was expecting there to be a bit of an adjustment period for Bogaerts. I expected him to be great, no doubt about that, but after being a lifelong member of the Red Sox I thought it'd take him some time to adjust to a new organization on the other side of the country. I'm very glad to be wrong because this team might have something like five wins if Bogaerts wasn't hitting.