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3 reasons to believe in the San Diego Padres despite a poor start to 2023

By Seth Carlson |
Apr 13, 2023; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres pitcher Joe Musgrove (44) looks on from
Apr 13, 2023; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres pitcher Joe Musgrove (44) looks on from / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
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The money was flowing in fast and furiously for the San Diego Padres in the offseason, but the start of their regular season in 2023? Not as fast, nor as furious.

At 7-7 through their first 14 games, the Padres haven't jumped out of the gate despite a massive talent advantage. They've struggled to score runs in bunches and haven't always pitched well, surprising for a roster built to out-slug and out-pitch its competition.

Despite the slow start to 2023, however, the Padres still have plenty of reasons to be optimistic for what lies ahead (besides the small sample size, obviously).

3 reasons to believe in the San Diego Padres despite their slow start in 2023

The return of Joe Musgrove from injury

The Padres miss Joe Musgrove. There's no denying that.

Musgrove threw the Padres' only no-hitter in franchise history in 2021 against the Texas Rangers, and has become a bona fide ace since he was acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates. He also owned a 2.89 ERA in the postseason in 2022 (the lowest of all of the team's starters), helping San Diego advance to the NLCS. That makes him a pretty important cog.

Fortunately, the Padres have received outstanding early production from offseason acquisitions Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo in Musgrove's place, but even those two can't replace the swagger and the talent Musgrove brings to the mound with him every fifth day. San Diego will benefit immensely from having their ace slot back in the rotation alongside Yu Darvish to recreate their elite tandem once again.

San Diego Padres superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. plays with the El Paso Chihuahuas during his rehab
San Diego Padres superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. plays with the El Paso Chihuahuas during his rehab / Omar Ornelas/ El Paso Times / USA TODAY

Fernando Tatis Jr.'s impending return to the San Diego Padres

Eligible to return to the Padres coming off an 80-game PED suspension on April 20, superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. is the type of spark plug that can reinvigorate a bumbling San Diego squad.

The soon-to-be Padres' right fielder just went deep three times in a rehab game for the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas. Think he's ready for his much-anticipated return to big league action?

San Diego proved down the stretch last season that they were just fine without their superstar, as they made a deep playoff run, but there's no doubt Tatis Jr. makes them better.

For anyone who needs a reminder, the 24-year-old's last full season in 2021 saw him hit 42 home runs, good for a .975 OPS and 166 OPS+ despite only playing in 130 games due to shoulder issues. A Padres team that ranks just 23rd in runs scored per game in so far in 2023 will be ecstatic to welcome Tatis Jr. back to their already loaded lineup.

Right field at Petco Park beckons. And, when Tatis Jr. makes his return, don't be surprised when his team's performance improves. That won't be any coincidence.

Apr 13, 2023; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado (left)
Apr 13, 2023; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado (left) / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Underperforming San Diego Padres superstars due for positive regression

Juan Soto's early-season OPS is .784. Manny Machado's is .640. Jake Cronenworth's? .647. That's a lot of underperformance, albeit in a miniscule sample size.

The good news? Nelson Cruz is off to a hot start with a .919 OPS and Xander Bogaerts isn't doing too bad for himself either, with a blazing 1.042 OPS to begin his 2023. Ha-Seong Kim's .826 OPS has also made him a key early contributor with the bat.

You'd figure that the rest of the Padres' superstar talents will encounter positive regression to bring them more in line with the production that their salaries demand they deliver. And there's more than enough reason to believe in that being true with Manny Machado and Juan Soto. Even Jake Cronenworth's Baseball Savant page would suggest that a turnaround is forthcoming, given his HardHit percentage of 72, as compared to his unlucky .196 batting average and .250 BABIP.

You can't keep an elite lineup down forever, and soon enough, this group will fire on all cylinders once again.

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