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3 Padres starting pitchers who will begin 2024 season in the majors, and 2 who won't

The Padres starting rotation is a bit unsettled at the moment.

By Drew Koch |
San Diego Padres pitcher Pedro Avila
San Diego Padres pitcher Pedro Avila / Sean M. Haffey/GettyImages
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The San Diego Padres starting rotation is a bit of mess at the moment. The Friars faithful have seen several subtractions already this offseason. While Blake Snell has yet to sign, Padres fans know he's not coming back to San Diego. The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner is seeking a huge payday following his tremendous 2023 campaign with the Padres.

But San Diego has also lost Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha this offseason. Though the Padres were able to receive some pitching help in the Juan Soto trade with the New York Yankees, San Diego's pitching staff has definitely taken a step back heading into 2024.

But the absence of veterans outside of Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove will give the Padres' young hurlers a chance to make an impression in spring training. Which starters are likely to begin the 2024 season in the major leagues, and who'll be sent to Triple-A?

Padres RHP Pedro Avila will begin the 2024 season in the big leagues

Pedro Avila, originally an international free agent signee of the Washington Nationals back in 2014, has had his struggles with the Padres organization since coming over in a trade during the 2016-17 offseason. After undergoing Tommy John surgery near the tail-end of the 2019 season, Avila was designated for assignment, but re-signed a minor-league deal the very next day.

Avila was outrighted in 2022, but accepted the assignment, and until last season, has spent most of his Padres career in the minors. Throughout his tenure with the San Diego organization, Avila has 18 major league games under his belt and a career ERA of 3.11.

Avila will be 27 years old once the 2024 season begins, and while he did a nice job of keeping the ball on ground in 2023, a walk-rate of nearly 12-percent isn't going to keep the right-hander on the roster over the long haul.

Avila is out of minor-league options, so it's likely the Friars will give him one last chance to prove that he belongs. Avila does have experience coming out of the bullpen as well, so that's certainly an option. Look for Avila to be battling for that final spot in the rotation when spring training rolls around next month.

Padres RHP Matt Waldron will begin the 2024 season in Triple-A

Matt Waldron logged just over 40 innings in the major leagues last season, and unlike the aforementioned Pedro Avila, the former Nebraska Cornhusker kept free runners off the base paths in 2023. Waldron owned a walk rate of just 6.9 percent in his eight appearances a year ago.

And while walks will haunt the dreams of a pitcher's manager, Waldron's inability to effectively get batters out at the major league level could hold him back this spring. Waldron was only able to post 31 punchouts over 41-plus innings in 2023.

That equates to a little over six strikeouts per nine innings, which isn't very good. However, during his time at Triple-A last season, Waldron posted 9.65 K/9 and still maintained a good 2.92 walks per nine innings pitched.

And while that aspect of his game was much better in the minor leagues, opposing batters were hitting over .300 against Waldron during his time at Triple-A El Paso. Waldron was just 2-10 with a 7.31 ERA in 92 innings with the Chihuahuas last season.

Matt Waldron has minor-league options remaining, so the Padres can easily send the right-hander back to the minors and use him as a depth piece to give the big league club a spot start here and there as needed.

Padres RHP Randy Vásquez will begin the 2024 season in the big leagues

Interestingly enough, Randy Vásquez's first career major league start came against the San Diego Padres. As a member of the New York Yankees last season, Vasquez went 4 2/3 innings of work on May 26 at Yankee Stadium and recorded six punchouts while allowing just two runs (ironically, on a Juan Soto moonshot).

If San Diego can get a similar type of outing from Vásquez while in a Padres uniform, the fanbase will be quite happy. Vásquez was part of the return the Friars received earlier this offseason in exchange for All-Star outfielder Soto.

Vásquez is arguably the most MLB-ready of any of the three young pitchers San Diego received in return. Of course the Padres expect a solid season from Michael King as well. Vásquez made 11 appearances in the majors last season, five of which were starts.

Vásquez's ERA of 2.87 is quite good, but 18 walks over less than 40 innings of work is not ideal. Hitters were only able to scratch across an .208 batting average against the electric righty, but new Padres manager Mike Shildt is not going to stand for that high number of free passes.

If Vásquez is able to maintain command and control during Cactus League play this spring, it's a good bet that he joins his former teammate, King, in the starting rotation. Vásquez does have minor-league options remaining, so if the right-hander is plagued by command issues during spring training, he could find his way to Triple-A (and the intimidating, hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League).

Padres RHP Jairo Iriarte will begin the 2024 season in Triple-A

While both Drew Thorpe and Dylan Lesko represent two exciting pitching prospects in the San Diego farm system, Friars fans should also be excited to see the looming major league debut of Jairo Iriarte. The 2018 international signee was added to the Padres 40-man roster this past year.

Last season, Iriarte split time between both High-A and Double-A. In just less than 100 innings of work, Iriarte kept the ball in the ballpark and was a strikeout machine. The right-hander posted a combined strikeout rate of 33.2 percent. That's outstanding. However, his walk rate of over 11 percent is not, and will be a point of emphasis in 2024.

Ideally, Iriarte would stay in the minors for the entire 2024 season. At just 22 years of age, what's the rush? However, a lack of starting options, or injuries, could force the Friars' hand -- and San Diego has never been shy about pushing their prospects through the system rather quickly.

Still, while Iriarte could find his way to the major league field in 2024, don't look for it to happen on Opening Day. The Padres have other pitchers with no minor-league options remaining. While San Diego fans have been spoiled recently by all the high-dollar free agents and superstar talent, sometimes that talent takes time to develop.

There is a lot to like about Iriarte. The young right-hander has a mid-to-upper 90s fastball, a decent changeup, and wipeout slider. While it's most likely that Iriarte begins the season at Triple-A, he won't be there for long.

Padres RHP Jhony Brito will begin the 2024 season in the big leagues

Jhony Brito is certainly going to be in the mix to be part of the San Diego Padres 'starting rotation next season. Although his inclusion might be the tenuous. Brito will likely be battling it out with the likes of Glenn Otto and Jay Groome for that final spot.

This could come down to minor-league options. Both Brito and Otto have them, while Groome does not. So, if the Padres want to maintain as much roster flexibility as possible, Groome may have a leg up on the competition. However, Groome's horrific command (7.49 BB) and his inability to keep the ball in the yard (1.67 HR/9) during 30 starts in the minors last season don't bode well for his candidacy.

But Brito, who -- like Randy Vásquez -- was part of the Juan Soto trade with the New York Yankees earlier this winter, has 25 major league games to draw from. Brito appeared in over 90 innings for the Bronx Bombers last season and struck out nearly 20 percent of the hitters he faced, turning things up down the stretch while being used out of the bullpen.

The question may be not if Brito will be part of the San Diego rotation, but for how long. When younger arms like Jairo Iriarte and Drew Thorpe begin knocking on the door to the big leagues, it's possible Brito will be one of the first players optioned back to the minors or moved to the bullpen.

Look for Brito secure that fifth and final spot in the San Diego rotation once spring training wraps. Of course, there are always injuries that creep up once spring training begins, and the Friars have yet to add a left-hander to the rotation. But, at the moment, the Padres' 2024 Opening Day rotation will be much younger than in years past.

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