3 mid-tier starters the San Diego Padres should target during free agency, 1 they should avoid

The San Diego Padres will look for better results next season after a brutal 2023. They'll look to do that with a rotation that is filled with a bunch of question marks.

Will Yu Darvish bounce back at age 37? Can Joe Musgrove stay healthy? Who will even take the ball after them? Blake Snell is a free agent at season's end. Seth Lugo will likely join him when he opts out. Michael Wacha's option is a bit more complicated, but there's a good chance he's joining free agency as well. That leaves three holes.

We know Snell is all but gone at this point. He should win the NL Cy Young Award and has likely priced himself out of San Diego. Lugo and Wacha could return depending on how much they make in free agency, but they could've outpriced themselves too. The Padres might have to look at external options for pitchers to slot in behind Darvish and Musgrove. These are some arms they should pursue and one A.J. Preller shouldn't go anywhere near.

Padres should target Rangers starter Andrew Heaney in free agency

Andrew Heaney has a player option worth $13 million that he could choose to opt into if he wants to stay in Texas. However, with how much starting pitchers are being paid these days, there's a good chance he's going to opt out and become a free agent. If this does happen, the Padres should pounce.

The Padres saw Andrew Heaney at his ceiling in 2022 with the Dodgers. He had a 3.10 ERA in 16 appearances, and he allowed just two earned runs in his four outings and 16.2 innings pitched against the Padres. That includes his fine postseason start against San Diego. Heaney took that good year and turned it into two guaranteed years with Texas with him having the chance to opt out after one. He wasn't as good as he was with Los Angeles, but Heaney pitched well for the Rangers this season.

In 34 appearances (28 starts), the southpaw had a 4.15 ERA in 147.1 innings of work. The oft-injured lefty finally stayed healthy for Texas and showed he's more than capable in the middle of a rotation for a playoff team. His walks spiked and he's always given up a few too many home runs, but Heaney was able to give consistent length and has always found a way to rack up the strikeouts. His 107 ERA+ suggests he was an above-average pitcher this season.

The Padres will be losing a left-hander in Snell, so why not replace him with a different one in Heaney? He's nowhere near as good as Snell, but few pitchers are. He's fine as a third or fourth starter.

Padres should target Guardians starter Lucas Giolito in free agency

Lucas Giolito's 2023 season was looking good ... until it didn't. In his first 21 starts with the White Sox, the right-hander had a 3.79 ERA in 121 innings pitched. In his six starts as an Angel, he had a 6.89 ERA. That number rose to 7.04 after Cleveland got him to finish the season. His season ERA of 4.88 was not good, no way around that.

What makes Giolito a pitcher San Diego should target is his upside, and his durability. At his best, Giolito is a Cy Young-caliber pitcher. He finished in the top-11 of the AL Cy Young balloting each season from 2019-2021. Back-to-back down years has certainly lessened his value to the point where he's now a mid-rotation guy, but there's always the chance he can revert back to his all-star self.

Even if he doesn't, the Padres should still trust Giolito to at the very least take the ball every fifth day. That's something that can't be said for both Darvish and Musgrove. He's made at least 29 starts in each of the last five 162-game seasons (excluding 2020) and has thrown at least 160 innings in those years as well. He's thrown at least 170 innings in four of the five years, including the 184.1 he gave this season.

Giolito putting up an ERA around 4.00 while making 30+ starts would be a valuable addition. He's still just 29 years old and isn't far off of being one of the best pitchers in the AL. He'd be a very worthwhile addition.

Padres should avoid Dodgers starter Lance Lynn in free agency

The Dodgers made a trade acquiring Lance Lynn at the trade deadline despite the veteran having a horrific first half with the White Sox. The Dodgers badly needed rotation help and for a brief period, it looked like they had turned his season around. His strong start to his Dodgers career included a start against the Padres in which he allowed just one run in six innings at Petco Park.

Lynn had a 1.44 ERA in his first four starts with the Dodgers but finished the season with a 6.23 ERA in his last seven outings. He then started Game 3 of the NLDS and proceeded to allow four consecutive home runs in Arizona's series-clinching victory. Overall, the right-hander had a 5.73 ERA in 32 starts and 183.2 innings pitched this year.

While Lynn continued to show that he has great strikeout stuff, he allowed a whopping 44 home runs this season. This was the most in the majors. While Lynn most likely won't have an ERA approaching 6.00 next season, there's a good chance the 36-year-old is just running out of gas and isn't the same pitcher he once was.

The Dodgers have the opportunity to bring Lynn back for the 2024 season if they exercise his $18 million club option, but chances are they won't be doing that. Signing him wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if San Diego believes he can be closer to his usual self, but there're plenty of other more intriguing options they have to choose from than a pitcher who appears to be running out of gas.