3 bad contracts the San Diego Padres will regret having on the books this offseason

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More than maybe any other team in MLB, the San Diego Padres love to offer very long contracts of astronomical worth to players who are almost guaranteed to not be able to perform well enough in their last years to justify the money they make.

It reflects a certain inability to anticipate change, decline, or risk, a stubbornness, and an overall lack of foresight. It could be that A.J. Preller and the Padres management want to show they believe in their players and want to invest in them, which is all well and good, but it didn't do the third-place Padres much good this season.

Here are 3 contracts the San Diego Padres will regret this offseason

In 2023, the Padres were the third-highest spending team in MLB, behind both New York teams, with a total payroll of $256,045,688. Before the start of the year, they were able to lock up what looked on paper like the best lineup in baseball. They had a certain energy, a style, a groove, swagger — but it never actually turned into runs on the field. Then, an Evan Drellich, Dennis Lin, and Ken Rosenthal article from the Athletic revealed that the Padres actually had to take out $50 million in loans this year in order to be able to pay for a myriad of necessities, including player payroll.

The fact that the Padres might not even really be able to afford the following contracts makes them feel even more exorbitant and extreme. As San Diego starts to regroup in the offseason, here are three contracts they might start to regret.

Yu Darvish: 6 years, $108 million through 2028

Yu Darvish is one of those guys with a massive contract and high risk attached, especially because at 37, he's the oldest of the five Padres who have contracts keeping them in San Diego for five or more years. He signed a six-year extension in February 2023, meaning he'll most likely be with the Padres until he's 43 years old. There was one 43-year-old in MLB this year: Rich Hill, who was making $8 million with the Pirates before he was traded to the Padres and then placed on waivers.

Whether or not Darvish's performance has declined so much by 2028 that his team will place him on waivers, he'll still be making $18 million. In August of this year, he went down with an injury in his right elbow. He's been on the IL multiple times throughout his tenure in the major leagues, most frequently with elbow and hip issues. Before that, he was having the second-worst year of his career. He finished out with a 4.56 ERA and an fWAR down to 2.4 from 4.1.

Maybe this is ungenerous. It could be that Darvish just had an off year. Pitchers who are 40 and up, while rare, can be very effective in relief roles. But Darvish is not getting any younger, and he's never going to make any less money than the Padres have already promised him over the next five seasons to perform in a starting role. All in all, the Padres might go into the offseason wishing they had more money to give some of their 15 arbitration eligible players, and might wish they gave Darvish less.

Robert Suarez: 5 years, $46 million through 2027

The Robert Suarez contract is a little bit of a mystifying one. Prior to his arrival in the major leagues in 2021, he played professional baseball almost exclusively in Japan, where he was good but not especially great. He made $6 million during his first year in MLB and put up unexpectedly great numbers: he posted a 2.27 ERA, the best on the Padres, over 47.2 innings, with 61 strikeouts and only 12 earned runs. Those numbers are what led the Padres to offer him a five-year contract worth $46 million ($9.2 million per year), making him the eighth-highest paid reliever in baseball this year.

But his output declined significantly in 2023, pitching only 27.2 innings, with 24 strikeouts and 13 earned runs, for a final 4.23 ERA. What's more, he was suspended for using an illegal substanc e in September, right at the beginning of what was always a highly improbable but nevertheless fun to watch late-season push from the Padres to take the last contentious NL Wild Card spot. He returned after 10 games on September 11 and made 10 more good appearances that significantly dropped his ERA.

Still, such a decline in performance, one that might have led to to the kind of desperation it takes to get caught with a foreign substance as checks become more stringent, is not a hopeful sign for the next four years. It might be a little too early to tell how much regret the Padres will look back at this contract with, but things aren't looking great right now.

Xander Bogaerts: 11 years, $280 million through 2033

The size of Xander Bogaerts' contract was controversial when it was announced, and it continues to be a little confounding. It's undeniable that Bogaerts, the 2023 Padres' top earner, had a very good year at the plate. Even if his performance dipped slightly from his last year in with the Boston Red Sox, he still finished with a final line of .285/.350/.440 with 19 home runs.

But, like Yu Darvish, Bogaerts will be old when his contract is up — 42, to be exact — and he'll be making $25.5 million every year until then. Those are absurd numbers to ask a fan base to get behind, especially when the player has no ties to San Diego, like Bogaerts' closest comparison in Manny Machado (31 years old, $350 million over 11 years).

Clearly, Bogaerts has a lot more time to prove his naysayers wrong, but given that he's been hurt more over the past two years than his other nine in the big leagues, the threat of injury and age feels like it's looming over those kinds of opportunities.

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Here are 3 contracts the San Diego Padres will regret this offseason

Yu Darvish: 6 years, $108 million through 2028

Robert Suarez: 5 years, $46 million through 2027

Xander Bogaerts: 11 years, $280 million through 2033

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