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3 AJ Preller decisions that could seal his fate with Padres after 2024
On Aug. 6, 2014, the San Diego Padres hired AJ Preller as their new general manager. During his current reign, the Padres have made the postseason twice (2020 and 2022), but suffered through six losing seasons.
In 2024, Preller has the difficult task of fulfilling deceased team owner Peter Seidler’s dream of winning a World Series title in San Diego. The Friars are one of five teams (Milwaukee Brewers, Seattle Mariners, Colorado Rockies, and Tampa Bay Rays) to have never won a championship.
The Friar Faithful thought last season’s team was good enough to win it all, but they never could get it together. And no one can explain their season-long malaise.
In a perfect world, Preller would have upgraded the roster without any financial limitations. Last season’s team had the largest payroll in franchise history ($256 million). However, this offseason has been less than perfect for the long-tenured executive.
Upper management wanted payroll lowered by $50 million for 2024. Preller traded away Juan Soto and Matt Carpenter to meet their demands. The moves helped compensate for the Padres' regional TV revenue losses ($60 million) associated with Bally Sports' bankruptcy issues.
In short, Preller's had a long time to figure this out, and the Padres still haven't gotten it together. Could he be gone after the 2024 season?
3 AJ Preller decisions that could seal his fate with Padres after 2024
Hiring Mike Shildt and discarding Bob Melvin
Since firing Bud Black on June 15, 2015, Preller has hired four managers (Andy Green, Jayce Tingler, Bob Melvin, and Mike Shidt) and named three interim managers (Dave Roberts, Pat Murphy, and Rod Barajas). He felt another managerial change was necessary to offer a new voice that will hopefully make an impact inside the locker room.
In Melvin’s first season as Padres manager, the team appeared to be trending upward. They acquired Soto from the Washington Nationals and punched their ticket to the postseason. The Friars secured a divisional series win over the Los Angeles Dodgers before losing to the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS.
But things turned ugly last season as the Padres struggled with a disappointing 82-80 record. Melvin has to take some responsibility for the team's underachievement. The deteriorating relationship between him and Preller led to Melvin parting ways and becoming the San Francisco Giants manager this past offseason.
New Padres manager Mike Shildt has the difficult task of taking a roster (minus Soto and more) into battle in one of baseball’s toughest divisions. It is fair to place the Friars behind the Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks in the chase for a postseason berth.
But Shildt understands the pressure of winning, as it is never easy to succeed with high expectations. The manager has to deal with the daily media scrutiny while attempting to keep everyone on the roster happy with their playing time. Winning should be fun, but their role in achieving lofty goals can be a thankless job.
Last season's failures have put pressure on Shildt to succeed in 2024. His job performance will be judged on how well the Padres compete against other contending teams. Shildt believes communicating with his players will put them in a good place to bounce back and play winning baseball.
Preller hopes to have selected the right managerial choice that forges a partnership beyond this season, especially given Melvin's stature in the baseball world.
Decimating the Padres starting rotation?
The Padres front office wants to add an experienced starting pitcher to the rotation. A reunion with Blake Snell is not out of the realm of possibility, especially with the starting pitching free market suddenly drying up. The Friars have some money in the budget to get a deal done. Signing Snell to a short-term deal would be beneficial for all parties.
But they should've never been in this position. Starting pitching is the most important component of a team's roster, and Preller let Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez depart this offseason. Yes, he imported Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez and Drew Thorpe, but the jury's very much out on all of those arms.
Right now, the Padres have what they have, and unless they can figure out a reunion with Snell or bring in Jordan Montgomery, they'll have to hope for the best with injured assets in Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish in addition to unknown commodities like the aforementioned names.
Preller did a nice job shoring up the bullpen by adding Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui and Wook Suk Go, but that was at the expense of losing key rotation pieces.
No outfielders after Juan Soto trade
The Padres need to acquire a right-handed hitting outfielder for a potential LF platoon role. The outfield depth on the 40-man roster is way too thin to fill this opening.
Preller brought left-handed hitter Jurickson Profar back to the Padres on a one-year deal. He has become the franchise’s “good luck” charm, but Profar has an opportunity to become more than a stopgap option in left field this season.
He broke in as an infielder, but has developed into a serviceable outfielder. Though he can get lax with his defensive skills, it seems Profar works best in a platoon situation. He's a streaky hitter who gets in trouble at the plate by extending the strike zone.
Ideally, Preller would like to acquire a younger right-handed hitting outfielder who has shown to hit for average and power in the minors. Jo Adell, a possible trade candidate, gives the Padres the complete package in a left-field platoon. Preller would not need to sacrifice defense, as Adell’s calling card is his glove, but he has struggled with his bat. In 178 major league games, Adell has batted .214 with 18 home runs. He must show better production at the plate to become a viable outfield option in 2024.
Preller must exhibit patience when searching for an outfield option on either market, though. He may need to deal one of his talented minor-league pitchers to acquire the right player in any potential trade. The next 10 days will be interesting as the Friars should be active before heading to Korea.
The lone component that keeps Preller employed is a winning season. His goal is still the same: building a roster for the playoffs. It is all about putting a quality product on the field.
The Padres have an incomplete roster, but Preller has time to change that narrative. Another disappointing season will probably seal his fate in San Diego, so he'll have to act fast.