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2 reasons the San Diego Padres should still pursue Shohei Ohtani, 1 reason they shouldn't

Ohtani suffered a UCL tear in his pitching elbow, but that shouldn't entirely preclude San Diego from pursuing him this winter.

By Seth Carlson |
Aug 23, 2023; Anaheim, California, USA; Los Angeles Angels designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17)
Aug 23, 2023; Anaheim, California, USA; Los Angeles Angels designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
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No matter how you slice it, the news of Shohei Ohtani's UCL tear in his pitching elbow is a devastating blow to the baseball world. But could the San Diego Padres still stand to benefit by pursuing him this winter?

Ohtani is done pitching in 2023, that we know for sure. However, he could still hit down the stretch for the Los Angeles Angels because he's simply a unicorn. Therefore, the value proposition still remains for teams like the Padres: a chance to acquire a fearsome slugger with the added upside of him once again returning to his two-way form.

On that note, let's analyze two reasons San Diego should still pursue Shohei Ohtani this winter, and one reason they may want to pivot.

The San Diego Padres should still pursue Shohei Ohtani this winter because his perceived value is less certain, which could drop his price tag

The Padres are running MLB's third-highest payroll in 2023, a byproduct of their aggressive owner and front office. And it stands to reason that next year, this trend will continue even if it isn't sustainable over the long haul. That's because winning is at the forefront (though the results don't illustrate such ambitions in 2023).

So in an effort to keep the dream alive for next season, could San Diego realistically make a Shohei Ohtani pursuit in a few months? The answer is (still) probably not. However, the two-way star's elbow injury at least makes things interesting.

Ohtani's value stems from his ability to hit and pitch. But pitching numbers aside, Ohtani's still an extremely prolific hitter, with 44 home runs and a 181 wRC+ as a designated hitter in 2023.

That said, it's wiser to pay players for who they'll be rather than who they've been. And considering Ohtani likely won't be a pitcher until at least 2025, that should drop his price tag somewhat. Perhaps even enough to entice the Padres.

Aug 23, 2023; Anaheim, California, USA; Los Angeles Angels designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) hits
Aug 23, 2023; Anaheim, California, USA; Los Angeles Angels designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) hits / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres should still pursue Shohei Ohtani this winter because they need an upgrade at DH

The Padres have used four different DH's this season: Matt Carpenter, Nelson Cruz, Ji Man Choi and Garrett Cooper. And none of them are even remotely close to being viable solutions at that position right now, let alone going forward.

But you know who would check that box? Shohei Ohtani.

As we mentioned, Ohtani's value as a hitter is well-established. For further context, though, consider that the Angels' combined 4.8 bWAR at the DH position in 2023 is the best in baseball. And on the opposite end of the spectrum are the Padres, who rank second to last with a -0.2 combined bWAR. That's a discrepancy of nearly five wins.

Those five wins might've been the difference between back-to-back playoff appearances and a disappointing season for San Diego. The choice couldn't be more clear: the Padres need a DH upgrade in the worst way, and Ohtani should still be able to hit and provide value in 2024. That's a match made in heaven.

Aug 23, 2023; Anaheim, California, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani (17)
Aug 23, 2023; Anaheim, California, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani (17) / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres should not pursue Shohei Ohtani because they need the full scope of his abilities, including pitching

Let's address the obvious concern with Shohei Ohtani: he won't be able to pitch for an extended period of time.

Currently, that timetable is unknown as Ohtani mulls his options with respect to elbow surgery. But regardless of his decision, the Padres need pitching help next season, and committing significant financial resources to an Ohtani pursuit could preclude them from making other necessary upgrades.

For example, San Diego has decisions to make on pending free agent pitchers Blake Snell and Josh Hader. If the Friars were to move forward with Ohtani instead, that would surely hinder their ability to bring back Snell and Hader, who have been key contributors on this year's team.

A large part of the appeal of bringing in a generational talent like Ohtani is to fill two needs with one signing. At least for now, though, the Japanese superstar will only be able to hit, which would leave the Padres with a vast upgrade at DH, but also with less of a pitching staff to support a potent lineup. And that is not a winning formula, as we're witnessing in 2023.

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