2 reasons the San Diego Padres will be competitive in 2024, 2 reasons they won't

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The 2023 MLB season isn't over yet. Not even close. But it's probably fair to say that this year's version of the San Diego Padres didn't materialize when compared to the lofty expectations set at beginning of the campaign.

After adding Xander Bogaerts to an already stacked, albeit top-heavy lineup, the Friars expected to run roughshod over the National League with their star hitters, veteran rotation and lockdown closer. That ... hasn't happened, and though the club still has a path to postseason contention in 2023, it's shrinking by the day.

So while the focus may still be on 2023 for San Diego, it wouldn't be outlandish to start thinking about next season either as the Padres continue to languish below .500 as of August 10.

Here are two reasons to believe in this team realizing their potential next year, and two reasons why a repeat of 2023 could be on the table.

The San Diego Padres will be competitive in 2024 because their roster will still be loaded with star power

A lineup with the aforementioned Bogaerts, along with Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto (assuming he's not traded in his walk year) should speak for itself. That hasn't manifested in 2023, but this assemblage of star power is tough to come by in sports, let alone in baseball. 2024 should see a full year of Tatis Jr. and a return to more career norms for the others.

On the pitching side, Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish will be returning, while Blake Snell and Josh Hader will be hitting the open market. How the Padres opt to handle the latter two will determine a lot about their 2024 chances, but if they retain at least one of Snell or Hader, they can more easily pivot to a replacement for the other.

Overall, this roster should still be good enough to be competitive next year, and given the record payroll that's being run by owner Peter Seidler (which will be unsustainable in future years), it better be.

San Diego Padres general manager A.J. Preller / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres will be competitive in 2024 because they have an aggressive owner and GM

As we alluded to in our first reason, the Padres have an aggressive owner in Peter Seidler who is running a franchise record payroll in 2023. And their GM, AJ Preller, is one of baseball's foremost wheeling and dealing executives. That combination should lead to continued aggression in free agency and on the trade market this coming winter.

And as long as those two are in charge, San Diego should remain competitive, in theory.

Even in a year where the Padres have soundly underachieved, the club still opted to buy at the trade deadline, reeling in several reinforcements for a chance at a Wild Card spot in 2023. That illustrates this team's commitment to winning despite the circumstances.

Preller, specifically, has quite a few problems to address this winter regarding the 2024 roster, but with a willing owner and a desire to win, we expect the Padres to make any upgrades they see fit.

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres won't be competitive in 2024 because their core is aging and unreliable, and their organizational depth is lacking

Now, to play Devil's Advocate, we're listing off two reasons why the Padres won't be competitive in 2024, starting with this one.

As we've seen this season, the Padres have lost significant contributors to injury at inopportune times, from Manny Machado and Joe Musgrove, to Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Robert Suarez. And don't forget, Fernando Tatis Jr. missed time with a suspension.

The truth is, San Diego's core is aging and if the warning signs haven't been clear in 2023, they won't go away in 2024. The Padres have been particularly affected by a lack of depth, failing to replace key contributors at crucial points. And if the Friars are unable to re-sign at least one of Blake Snell or Josh Hader going into 2024, that will only escalate their situation.

Another revolving door position for the Padres in 2023? Designated hitter. It remains to be seen what type of production San Diego will receive from Ji-Man Choi and Garrett Cooper down the stretch, but considering this team deployed Matt Carpenter and Nelson Cruz at DH earlier this season, the need for some consistency at the position is there.

Depth is attainable, but the Padres must make it a priority this offseason or else 2024 could look a lot like 2023.

San Diego Padres meeting at the mound / Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres won't be competitive in 2024 because their clubhouse chemistry will continue to hold them back

One would assume that with a manager as steady as Bob Melvin, clubhouse chemistry wouldn't be an issue to confront. But that would be an incorrect assumption to make.

It's understandable why the 2023 San Diego Padres might be lacking in chemistry. With so many star players under one roof, corralling egos has to be a difficult assignment. And reports have said as much about this team.

But here's the deal: if this group doesn't settle those personality issues, they can forget about being competitive in 2024. Holding onto an individual ego isn't going to help the Friars win in 2024.

Instead, these players, many of whom have now been teammates for at least a year, must find a way to come together and and develop an identity. A shared identity is something San Diego has lacked this season and it has shown on the diamond, as well as in the clubhouse.

And if the Padres miss the playoffs in 2023, this group should share in a collective, burning desire to rectify a failed season by coming out better than ever in 2024. But until we see that play out, clubhouse chemistry could continue to hold San Diego back from achieving their goals.

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