4) Padres pitcher Seth Lugo will not be back in 2024
Seth Lugo was one of the big surprises of the season for the Padres, posting a 3.57 ERA in 26 starts and 146.1 innings pitched. He converted from a reliever back to being a starter and showed that he was a very capable mid-rotation guy who can stay healthy over the course of a long season. Lugo was a big reason the Padres even had a chance at making a run to the postseason.
Lugo pitching so well means it's very unlikely he opts into his $7.5 million player option. It's within his right to test free agency, and there will certainly be a multi-year deal out there that guarantees him an eight figure salary. I think it's very unlikely the Padres engage in a multi-team bidding war to keep the 33-year-old in town.
5) Padres DH Matt Carpenter will not be back in 2024
Padres fans can only wonder where this team would be had they simply re-signed Brandon Drury and used him as the team's primary DH instead of the platoon of Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter. Cruz struggled to the point where he was designated for assignment earlier this season and Carpenter was arguably worse but remained with the club, presumably due to the second year of his contract.
Carpenter has a player option worth $5.5 million for the 2024 season, one they certainly regret giving and one he will absolutely exercise. While the money will be guaranteed, there's no way San Diego can keep Carpenter around next season and act like they're in it to win it. He slashed .176/.322/.319 this season and had a grand total of 38 at-bats since the beginning of July. He barely played down the stretch, and would seemingly ride the pine again next season.