1 player San Diego Padres should extend next, and 2 extensions they should avoid
The San Diego Padres extended two core pieces to their team this offseason to long contracts. Manny Machado and Yu Darvish will be in the brown and gold for a long time.
A.J. Preller decided he wasn't done, as he inked Jake Cronenworth to a seven-year extension worth $80 million right after Opening Day. This kept another core piece in San Diego for the long term.
Most of the Padres core is locked in for a little while now, but there're three players approaching free agency without extensions. The Padres should extend one of them right now while holding off on the other two.
The San Diego Padres should extend Juan Soto
Juan Soto's Padres career hasn't gotten off to the greatest of starts as the star outfielder had just a .778 OPS last season in his time with the Padres and has a .707 OPS to begin this season. He's still walking as he leads the league with 17 walks in 18 games, but Soto is hitting just .164 with three home runs.
The slow start is annoying, but there's no reason to think this will last. The Padres should extend Juan Soto sooner than later.
Soto is just 24 years old and, despite his poor San Diego tenure, is on a Hall of Fame trajectory. Yes, he's that good.
Extending Juan Soto even if it's for 13 years like Bryce Harper got would take him through his age 37 season. It's not the same as Machado, Bogaerts, and Darvish who will all be in their 40's. The Padres will get Soto in his prime for the duration of the deal.
Soto has very little reason to extend right now unless he really loves San Diego. He reportedly turned down a 15-year deal worth $440 million before Washington ended up trading him to the Padres. The offer will be massive, but worthwhile.
When right, Soto is a guy who can hit over 30 homers while getting on base at an absurd clip. Even this season with Soto hitting .164 so far, he has a .346 OBP. Last season he hit .242 overall and had an OBP over .400.
Soto is one of the best hitters in the game when right, and the Padres would be foolish to not at the very least try to extend him before the 29 other teams can bid on his services.
The San Diego Padres should avoid an extension with Josh Hader
Josh Hader was the other massive trade deadline acquisition made by the Padres. Like Soto, he struggled in his new environment. Hader posted a 7.31 ERA in 19 regular season appearances for the Padres. He did find a way to get his command under control towards the end of the season and pitched 5.1 scoreless innings in his five postseason appearances with four saves.
Hader has gotten off to a good start this season, allowing one run in his first seven innings of work and racking up four saves. That still isn't good enough to warrant an extension.
When right, Hader is one of the best relievers in baseball. His stuff is borderline unhittable, and he's definitely a guy the Padres should look to re-sign at the right price. The issue is, I think an extension would be so far beyond what the right price actually is.
Edwin Diaz got a five-year deal this past offseason from the Mets worth $102 million guaranteed. It's the largest contract a reliever has ever signed. It helps when you have Steve Cohen's seemingly unlimited pockets to work with, but that contract is, for lack of better words, insane.
Diaz is great, but relievers are so volatile it makes it very hard to committ long term like that on such massive money.
Last season Hader did not allow a run in his first 18 appearances and 17.2 innings of work. From June 7 until the end of the season, Hader had an 8.07 ERA, losing five games and blowing four saves. A switch can flip in an eyeblink.
Hader is making $14.1 million this season and is a free agent after the year, an extension would require a similar or larger figure for many years. It's just not worth it.
The San Diego Padres should avoid an extension with Blake Snell
Blake Snell was one of the best pitchers in baseball during his time with Tampa Bay. He won the Cy Young Award in 2018 and was a very important piece on their 2020 pennant-winning team. the Padres acquired Snell after the 2020 season and he just hasn't been the same guy since.
Snell had a 4.20 ERA in 27 starts in the 2021 season while pitching just 128.2 innings. He averaged around 4.7 innings per start, which is unacceptable for a guy who's supposed to be a frontline starter.
Last season Snell was better, posting a 3.38 ERA in 24 starts but even then his walks were high (3.8 BB/9), and it just felt like you never knew which version of Snell you were going to get.
This season has been rough for the southpaw thus far, as he's posted a 6.92 ERA in three starts and just 13 innings of work. Snell has walked 10 and already given up three home runs in his three starts.
Like Hader, Snell is a free agent after this season. Given the production he's given the Padres and the downfall he's had since the 2018 season, I don't see why the Padres would extend Snell.
He hasn't thrown 130 innings or more since 2018. He hasn't made 30+ starts since that season either. He's done both of those things just once in his eight-year career.
When he's right, Snell can be really good. Last season he had a stretch of five starts in which he allowed just three runs in 28.2 innings pitched (0.94 ERA). He also had three starts in which he allowed five runs or more and couldn't get past the fourth inning. When he's off, he's very off.
If Snell has a good year, stays healthy, and wants to return, the Padres can sign him in free agency. They can even look to extend him after the season ends. Doing so now when Snell's tenure has been as rocky as it has been, would be a mistake.