Padres' Yuki Matsui becomes breakout candidate at perfect time after arsenal switch

Folks, all it takes is some patience. And a lethal backdoor slider.

A year ago, Padres fans were starting to wonder whether Yuki Matsui was overrated and worth a five-year contract. To his credit, at the time, he was part of an elite bullpen, so anything he did would be overshadowed by other stars.

Regardless, he had an ERA just under 4.00 in his second full season, which was ultimately a disappointment. But now, the 30-year-old seems to be doing just fine in the major leagues. In his third full MLB season, Matsui is a breakout star reliever — and it couldn't have come at a better time.

With two-time All-Star Robert Suarez now on the Atlanta Braves, and Mr. Reliable Jason Adam spending more time on the injured list than in the bullpen, the timing of Matsui's breakthrough is impeccable. And we can thank his slider for his rise to dominance.

Yuki Matsui's slider has been recipe to consistent success in 2026 season with Padres

Entering Tuesday night with a 1.98 ERA and a league-best .169 expected batting average, Matsui is exceeding his expectations in 2026. He's always had a great splitter, but it was a bit obvious to the opposition when it was coming. So, we never saw the true potential of his splitter until now, and it's because his slider usage has gone up.

In 2024, Matsui threw his slider 27.1% of the time. Last year, 15.9%. Rather than Matsui continue the trend of scrapping the slider, he's gone to it more often.

Entering Tuesday night, Matsui has thrown his slider 30.3% of the time this season. Opponents are whiffing on 38.2% of those pitches, and when they do make contact, it's a weak grounder.

But not only is the increase in slider usage working directly, but it is making his splitter even more effective, too. His splitter has a 46.8 whiff rate, which is a few ticks better than the last two seasons. This tells us that the hitters aren't sure whether the pitch is going to break horizontally, or vertically. Having the opposition guess a few more times than in the past is proving to be the answer for Matsui, who is in the 97th percentile in whiff rate and 96th percentile in hard-hit rate — two metrics that were much more unkind to him in 2024 and 2025.

Thanks to his resurgence, the sting of Adam's injuries and Suarez's departure has not been as painful. Obviously, that's not taking anything away from Mason Miller, Adrián Morejón, Wandy Peralta, and Bradgley Rodriguez. They have been terrific, too. But fans were unsure if Matsui would get better this year. They don't have to worry any longer.

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