Padres watch Joe Musgrove reach a reassuring rehab checkpoint that eases a real fear

The Padres didn’t need Joe Musgrove to light up a radar gun in late February. They needed something way more specific, and way more honest.

They needed Musgrove to get into the third inning, feel his body start to drag, and find out whether the stuff stayed intact anyway. On Feb. 26 in Peoria, he did exactly that. Per Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune, he threw his 35th pitch, then asked for one more — not because the Padres were chasing a number, but because Musgrove was chasing the moment that actually matters: fatigue.

Padres’ Joe Musgrove comeback just delivered a subtle reason to believe

“Get the third up, see how the body responds,” Musgrove said afterward, explaining the point of the session. “To know that I can feel fatigued and my stuff doesn’t suffer too much.”

That’s the real fear the Padres have been living with since October 2024 — not “Will the elbow hold up in a bullpen?” but “What happens when the easy part is over?” When you have to locate something with intent instead of just surviving a rehab step.

Musgrove, 33, faced 12 batters in a simulated game (with Luis Campusano and Anthony Vilar essentially handling all the takes), recorded nine outs, and looked like a guy who’s starting to recognize himself again. The fastball touched 95 mph, but the more meaningful detail was command: he was particularly sharp in a 12-pitch first inning, locating his slider and sinker on the arm-side edge — inside to righties — the kind of precision that’s usually the last thing to come back after a long layoff.

And then there was the quote you actually want to believe.

“I’m coming out of this feeling the best I have felt,” Musgrove said.

He also gave you the honest caveat the Padres are going to live with early: “Everything outside the changeup.” Curveballs felt good. He’s still working on a new slider, and even if he liked the shapes, he admitted it wasn’t perfectly consistent yet. That’s normal. The point right now is building a foundation sturdy enough to handle real-game cadence.

When Musgrove is right, he’s not just another starter. He can settle a series, stabilize a staff, and give the Padres a different type of confidence. From 2021 through 2024, he posted a 3.20 ERA that ranked among the best starters in baseball and a 4.13 strikeout-to-walk ratio that reinforced what your eyes already told you: Musgrove wins with command, craft, and competitiveness.

Even in 2024, when he pitched through elbow pain, he still put up a 3.88 ERA with 101 strikeouts in 99 2/3 innings across 19 starts — and he was trending up late, allowing two runs over his final 18 innings in the regular season. Then the elbow finally refused to cooperate, cutting short the version of Musgrove the Padres were hoping would carry them when it mattered most.

Thursday was a checkpoint. Pitching coach Ruben Niebla described the plan as “full-go but watch him,” which is basically the only responsible way to handle a pitcher coming off Tommy John with this much importance to the season. Musgrove’s own language matched that reality: his next step should be a Cactus League start, but it’s day-to-day. If anything feels off, they push it back. No heroics. No “we’ll grind through it.” Not this time.