Padres’ volatile Opening Day lineup projection quietly reveals a brewing problem

We are officially at the doorstep of baseball heaven, as spring training inches closer by the day. With the offseason coming to a close, we are beginning to get an understanding of what each team’s lineup will look like come opening day.

The Padres have had one of the quieter offseasons compared to other teams, as payroll constraints limited the number of moves they made. In a way, the president of baseball operations, A.J. Preller, had one hand tied behind his back.

But with spring training officially turning the corner, we have a sense of what Preller’s 2026 lineup will look like.

Padres’ concerning Opening Day lineup projection shows the back half isn’t scaring anyone

Unfortunately, once you get past the first four, the back five takes a massive fall-off. This could truly hurt the Padres in 2026, and it comes from having the lack of money and prospects to build off of what they already had.

The first four aren’t bad by any means, headlined by Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Ramón Laureano. The only loss in this part of the lineup is Luis Arráez, who took a one-year, $12 million deal with the division rival San Francisco Giants. Other than that, the front of the order is not bad at all.

However, when you get towards the back half of the lineup, issues begin to flare. With Miguel Andujar opening it up, he is followed by Gavin Sheets, Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, and Freddy Fermin. Two of those guys are due a ton of money for minimal production (Bogaerts/Cronenworth).

2026 was always going to be a transition year for the Padres, as they lost a ton of key players to free agency, as well as their manager. It is safe to say that no one really knows what the expectations are going to be.

In our opinion, this team could flip-flop with the Giants for second place.