Padres’ two-month freefall leaves only one responsible trade deadline direction

Fifty-two games is more of a verdict than a slump. Between May 24 and July 24, the Padres went 19-33. Only the Athletics posted a worse record during that span. Meaning the Friars played .365 baseball for nearly one-third of a season, wiping out its encouraging start and falling to 50-53.

You’d think that means we’ve seen enough. A.J. Preller could point toward 2024 as proof that a middling Padres team can catch fire. We remember what happened two years back. That club hovered around .500 before finishing the regular season on a remarkable 43-19 run. The Padres won 93 games, swept Atlanta in the Wild Card Series and pushed the eventual champion Dodgers to a decisive fifth game in the NLDS.

It was a special run. And it was also two years ago. The 2026 Padres have spent the last two months proving they are nothing like that team.

These Padres lack what made the 2024 second-half turnaround possible

The turnaround in 2024 didn’t appear through positive thinking. That roster had the talent, health and underlying performance to support a surge. The lineup was already productive, and the front office had enough prospect capital to attack specific weaknesses. Naturally, Preller went for it.

The Padres acquired Tanner Scott, Jason Adam, Martín Pérez, Bryan Hoeing and Brandon Lockridge. They sent out nine minor leaguers across four trades, including six of their top 12 prospects. Robby Snelling, Adam Mazur and Graham Pauley were among the most notable departures.

That was an enormous price. It also made sense for a team ready to win. Scott and Adam transformed the bullpen. Pérez stabilized the back of the rotation. The Friars had a complete offense and needed pitching reinforcements to turn a dangerous roster into a legitimate October threat. That aggressive deadline helped the Padres complete the second-best regular season in franchise history.

The 2026 roster presents Preller with a much uglier equation. The offense has been stuck near the bottom of baseball for most of the season. Their stars have collectively fallen well short of expectations. The rotation has been held together with short-term signings, openers and crossed fingers while Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove and several other pitchers continue to work their way back from injuries.

Michael King has been the only stable rotation option. Mason Miller has been brilliant…when needed. Neither can cover every inning or rescue the offense.

The Padres don’t need one deadline addition. They need a bat and at least one starting pitcher, probably two. Even MLB’s recent assessment acknowledged that the current roster contains too many holes for San Diego to be timid at the trade deadline.

That leaves Preller chasing an expensive overhaul with hardly anything left of a farm system for a club that has played worse than every team with a real home ballpark since late May. Doesn’t sound like a clever plan. 

The Padres have already provided their deadline answer

The Friars remain close enough to the final Wild Card spot for the standings. That’s a trap that creates false hope.

Four games can look manageable right now. But a crowded field makes the climb much steeper. The Padres would need to jump several teams while suddenly playing at a level they haven’t reached in two months. They also carry a negative run differential, showing that their losing record hasn’t arrived through bad luck. This is who they have been.

Preller said the 10-game road trip through Kansas City, Atlanta and Miami would help clarify the Padres’ trade deadline direction. The team opened it by going 2-5 against the Royals and Braves. A strong weekend in Miami would improve the mood. But it wouldn’t erase the previous 52 games.

No responsible front office should allow one series to outweigh two months of evidence. So the plan should be straightforward. Cash in expiring contracts. Listen on veterans who could bring back young pitching. Protect Ethan Salas at all costs. Set a gigantic price on Miller and move him only if another club meets it. And please, please replenish the farm. 

They desperately need a retool built around Tatis, Machado and Merrill. It gives the Padres a chance to address their lack of depth and construct a more functional roster for 2027.

Another buying spree would leave them with even fewer prospects, the same expensive core and no guarantee that its glaring weaknesses have actually been fixed.

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