Padres trading for Hunter Greene would require the Reds to abandon their entire plan

Okay, so Hunter Greene would look awfully good in brown and gold. Especially with the Padres trying to drag their rotation through a playoff race. Michael King and Walker Buehler are their only two starters working a traditional schedule, and everyone else is participating in what looks like an elaborate bullpen game. A frontline starter isn’t merely on the Padres’ wish list. It’s a must have. 

It makes sense that Jim Bowden of The Athletic would identify Greene as the Padres’ best target if A.J. Preller decides to buy. Greene has the arsenal, age and contract to give the Friars an ace beyond this season.

Trading for Hunter Greene would further drain the Padres’ farm system

The fit is the easy part. The trade logic is where Bowden completely loses us. He argues that the Reds need to become younger and cheaper. Sure, that makes sense. But Greene is 26 years old and signed through 2028 with a club option for 2029. They owe him $15.3 million in 2027 and $16.3 million in 2028 before deciding on a $21 million option.

That’s wildly affordable, and in baseball terms, 26 is still young. If the Reds trade Greene in pursuit of younger, cheaper talent, what exactly are they hoping to acquire? A highly regarded prospect who could someday develop into a young, controllable frontline starter?

Congratulations. They already have one. Actually, two if you throw in Chase Burns. Burns just signed a 7-year, $105 million extension. You could make the case that the Reds want to dump Greene’s salary. But that doesn’t make sense. Greene’s deal covers what should be his prime. He posted a 2.76 ERA in 2025 and has already made an All-Star team. His combination of upside and contractual control is precisely what retooling clubs spend years trying to find.

The medical concerns are also in play. Greene underwent elbow surgery in March and now owns a 7.06 ERA through four starts since returning. His most recent appearance unraveled in the sixth inning against St. Louis, raising another round of questions about how quickly he can regain his old form.

That still doesn’t give the Reds a reason to sell him cheaply. MLB.com described the Red’s deadline direction as a retool rather than a complete teardown. Expiring contracts belonging to veterans make sense as trade chips. Greene was placed in the considerably different “less obvious” category. So, he’s technically available, but not as available as their trade chips with expiring contracts. And if a team has an offer, they’ll need to come correct. 

The Padres would need to obliterate that price. Any serious discussion would reach the top of San Diego’s farm system quickly. We’re talking Ethan Salas and Kruz Schoolcraft, potentially accompanied by more of the organization’s remaining depth. The Padres just sent Leo De Vries, then one of baseball’s premier prospects, to the Athletics in the Mason Miller blockbuster. Miller has been spectacular, but the trade left another crater in a system Preller has repeatedly mined for major league help.

Now Bowden is floating the possibility of San Diego shopping Miller and King to rebuild the organization, then unloading more prospects to acquire Greene. That’s a dizzying amount of deadline gymnastics. 

There is some baseball logic in converting the value of an elite closer into a controllable starter. Starting pitching is the greater need, and Greene would influence far more innings than Miller. But the Reds have little use for a dominant closer while retooling, so San Diego would probably need separate trades or a complicated three-team construction to make the pieces fit.

Greene makes perfect sense for the Padres. That doesn’t make a trade sensible for the Reds.

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