Padres’ starting rotation uncertainty could derail A.J. Preller’s offseason

A.J. Preller has always been comfortable working without a safety net. He’ll take an unsettled roster and keep the phone busy until he sorts it out. Somehow, he’ll find a way to make the winter interesting. That may not be enough this time around.

He described the Padres’ starting rotation as a “blank canvas” during the team’s end-of-season press conference. He sees flexibility. But we see a depth chart with the name Randy Vásquez on it…and that’s about it.

According to MLB.com’s offseason overview, Vásquez is currently the only guaranteed returnee in the rotation. Michael King is likely to opt out. The Padres hold a team option on Nick Pivetta. Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray, Casey Mize and Lucas Giolito are all headed for free agency. It’s a lonely canvas.

A.J. Preller may face his most difficult Padres rotation rebuild yet

Preller has earned some confidence when it comes to finding starting pitching. He has regularly rebuilt San Diego’s rotation through trades, free agency and sheer transaction volume. He found King in the Juan Soto trade. He landed Dylan Cease before flipping him a year later. Pivetta became another example of the Padres identifying a pitcher who could outperform expectations.

Past creativity doesn’t make this situation any more comfortable. It only explains why Preller can look at so many vacancies without reaching for the nearest alarm. The Padres need more than names to fill five boxes. They need innings, stability and depth. Their pitching staff was running on fumes by the end of another postseason. Reconstructing that same vulnerability with a different collection of arms would amount to busywork.

There’s no doubt that Vásquez can help. But we’ve seen enough to know that he can’t be treated as the rotation’s foundation. He is the only firm answer because nearly every other possibility arrives with a contractual, physical or personal decision attached.

Exercising Pivetta’s option would settle one spot on paper. His health still determines how much certainty that move actually buys. Musgrove remains one of the most important pitchers in franchise history, but we don’t know what his workload will be heading into 2027. Yu Darvish? Another question mark. Any potential King reunion would come with a significant price and plenty of competition if he reaches the open market.

That leaves Preller shopping for a front-line starter, dependable middle-rotation innings and legitimate depth at the same time. Every team wants pitching. Few enter the winter needing this much of it while still claiming World Series expectations.

A blank canvas sounds exciting in December. By April, it needs to look like a rotation. If Preller fails to turn all that supposed flexibility into dependable innings, the Padres’ greatest offseason opportunity will become the problem that sinks another year.

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