Padres’ star ends home run drought, but still not out of the woods

The Padres star ended his longest home run drought ever, but don’t mistake it for a full return to form just yet. The underlying data tells another story.
Kansas City Royals v San Diego Padres
Kansas City Royals v San Diego Padres | Orlando Ramirez/GettyImages

On Saturday, June 21st, Fernando Tatis Jr. finally gave the San Diego Padres a long-awaited jolt. With two runners on and two outs in the seventh inning, the star outfielder turned on a fastball from Royals right-handed pitcher Taylor Clarke and sent it 380 feet into the left-field seats. Statcast had it at 107.9 mph off the bat — vintage Tatis. Petco Park erupted. The home run drought was finally over.

It was his first home run since May 27 — a stunning 98 plate appearances and 21 games without a long ball. For a player whose power is supposed to be a foundational piece of the Padres’ lineup, that’s far and away too long of a gap.

Padres’ star slugs first homer in weeks — but is Tatis really back?

Tatis entered the season hot, launching eight home runs across March and April while posting a robust 42.1 percent pull rate — a healthy sign for a power hitter who thrives on turning on pitches. But since then, the numbers have told a different story. In May, his pull rate dropped to 39.7 percent, but he still managed five home runs. Now, in June, the pull percentage has cratered to just 30.4 percent — and Saturday’s home run is the only one he’s hit all month.

That’s not just a cooling-off period. There definitely could be a change in approach or mechanics. Further compounding the concern is the fact that every single one of Tatis’ 14 home runs this season has come to the pull side. In June, a staggering 46.4 percent of his balls in play have been driven to center field — many of them routine outs, dying in the deep parts of ballparks. His spray chart tells a story that Tatis is no longer consistently unlocking his pull-side power, and the results confirm it.

Is this mechanical? Is he pressing? Is he simply in a cold stretch? Whatever the root cause may be, one home run isn’t enough to declare that Tatis is "back."

The Padres are clinging to postseason hopes in a tight race in the NL West. They need Fernando Tatis Jr. to be more than just a spark. Saturday’s homer was a step in the right direction, but make no mistake — he’s still not out of the woods.