Padres’ sobering 2026 projection has them flirting with MLB’s worst place to live

This may ring hollow in the same division as the perennially-rebuilding Colorado Rockies, but there is nothing worse in sports than running tirelessly on the treadmill of mediocrity.

Winning is obviously the ultimate goal, and making the playoffs is at least a good barometer for success in any given season. Losing, while painful and agonizing over a 162-game slate, at least comes with the promise of high draft picks, top prospects, and frequent (sell-side) trades. If nothing else, both sides of the spectrum give fans and pundits plenty to discuss throughout a season.

Being mediocre, though, offers no such reprieves. Finishing a season with a .500 record can be a mark of good progress as a franchise climbs out of the doldrums of a rebuild, but to sink to that level from a window of contention — or, worse, to play at that level consistently every year — is often as cruel a fate as any in baseball.

Unfortunately, that's where ESPN believes the San Diego Padres' 2026 fate lies, ranking them distinctly middle of the pack in their latest power rankings at No. 13 overall.

Padres must keep offseason momentum going to escape dreaded tier of mediocrity

The good news about the ESPN ranking is that it's a two-spot improvement over where the Friars ranked at the onset of the offseason, and they're also now well clear of the Arizona Diamondbacks (No. 17) and San Francisco Giants (No. 20) in the NL West. Of course, the Los Angeles Dodgers sit in first place, but that's more inevitability than anything at this point.

Of course, these "expert" power rankings hardly hold any real meaning once the games start counting, but it is a concerning continuation of a trend from the national media. FanGraphs predicted an 80-82 record for the Padres in late November, suggesting they'd be lucky to reclaim their No. 2 spot in the division.

Since then, San Diego has re-signed Michael King and added KBO star Sung-mun Song, giving the rotation and lineup a much-needed infusion of talent and depth. That may have exhausted all of the team's financial resources, but the outlook of the roster is now much rosier than it was even two months ago.

Plus, there are reasons to be optimistic about internal improvements in 2026. Jackson Merrill should be healthier this year, which should lead to a bounce back at the plate for the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up. Joe Musgrove is finally returning from Tommy John surgery, which should give first-year manager Craig Stammen three dependable starters to rely on. And having Freddy Fermin behind the plate for a full season will automatically improve on whatever the heck the Padres tried at catcher last year.

Coming off back-to-back 90-win campaigns, the Friars have earned the benefit of the doubt as at least the second-best team in the NL West. Hopefully, they won't slip too far from that pedestal in 2026.