Padres' rotation upgrade might've been under their noses after insane spring metrics

The Padres spent all winter acting like a rotation upgrade had to come from somewhere else. Some outside name. Some shiny solution. Some “this fixes everything” headline.

And meanwhile, Randy Vásquez has been sitting right there, quietly trying to turn himself from “useful innings-eater” into something closer to an actual difference-maker.

Padres’ spring results on Vásquez reveal a dangerous new wrinkle for opponents

Let’s not rewrite history here — in 2025, Vásquez was fine. Twenty-six starts, 133.2 innings, 3.84 ERA, 1.32 WHIP. The strikeouts weren’t there (78), the walks piled up (52), and half the time it felt like he was negotiating his way through outings instead of just taking them.

But then the season ended with a pretty loud hint that something was changing. In September, he ran a 2.53 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP over four starts, including a seven-scoreless outing against the Brewers where he basically refused to let traffic stick. That wasn’t a fluke-y, five-inning run either. It looked like a guy figuring out how to manage a lineup without living on the edge every pitch.

Now spring training is adding fuel to that idea.

Analytics account LouisAnalysis highlighted that Vásquez has added nearly 3 mph to his four-seamer/sinker, and that his early spring rates are eye-popping: Whiff rate north of 30 percent and chase rate near 40 percent. That’s the exact combo you’re begging for if you want a starter to level up: more velocity, more swing-and-miss, and more ugly decisions from hitters.

The Padres don’t need Vásquez to become an ace overnight. But they do need him to become the kind of starter who can turn a lineup over twice without the constant “is the bullpen warming yet?” anxiety. If that velo bump is real and the whiff and chase gains hold, you’re suddenly looking at a pitcher who can create his own outs instead of negotiating for them.

And honestly, that’s the most Padres thing possible: chasing rotation stability for months, only for the upgrade to show up in their own locker room wearing the same nameplate it had last year.