Padres' rotation battle has a hidden wrinkle that could reshape Opening Day

There's no telling how good the San Diego Padres' starting rotation will be in 2026. There are plenty of question marks, most notably highlighted by whether both Joe Musgrove and Michael King will be healthy. Nick Pivetta, on the tails of a tremendous 2025 campaign, is entering his mid 30s with some decent mileage on his arm over the last five seasons. Can he remain durable?

These three arms are essentially guaranteed a spot within the Friars' rotation, but that's it. That should make Padres fans a bit skeptical. On top of that, there are several others gunning for a starting role. San Diego's problem is that among that group is a bevy of fringe pitchers who flirt with actually deserving to be in contention.

In what would perhaps be a surprise move to circumvent that, should the Padres elect for a six-man rotation? It may not produce All-Star numbers from the pack, but it will give more pitchers an opportunity to contribute, all while allowing the formerly injured pitchers to recover.

Padres' six-man starting rotation theory could work in 2026

After the Pivetta-King-Musgrove trio, it's likely that Randy Vásquez grabs the fourth spot in the rotation. It doesn't excite the Padres' community, but his approach for soft contact is the strongest tool among those remaining. So, we'll say — for now — that the fourth spot is his to begin the year.

In a conventional rotation, that would leave the Padres with one spot left, which doesn't seem fitting based on who is in the running. Kyle Hart and JP Sears are two left-handers among a staff mainly occupied by righties, so that is a leg up for them. Sears should earn the fifth spot on the staff, but you never truly know how he will perform in spring training. He's off to a bad start.

Triston McKenzie is an intriguing pick. Adding another pitch to his arsenal, McKenzie is the perfect blend of being young and coachable for Ruben Niebla to step in and help him. We'll see how the spring goes for McKenzie, but it seems like he will be with the Padres regardless, either as a starter or a reliever.

Finally, we have two former NL West foes desperate for a career resurgence. Walker Buehler and Germán Márquez, each 31 years old, have pitched below their standard in the last couple of seasons. But, they are each ready to reinvent themselves in hopes of making the starting rotation. The competition between these two alone is enough drama to consume.

A six-man rotation gives all of these guys an opportunity to pitch. It can even be a carousel for them, dependent on performance. If you're not good, then another pitcher steps in as the sixth man. If you pitch well, then that is your spot for the foreseeable future. Does that add to the pressure for these pitchers? We're sure it does, but maybe they need that extra kick.

While this potential mess is all happening at the bottom of the rotation, this would give King and Musgrove an extra day to rest and ensure there are no aches or strains. It could be a win-win, so as long as these fringe pitchers can produce.