Padres’ Robbie Ray trade is already showing signs it could age terribly

Robbie Ray is still adjusting to life in San Diego. Through his first three starts with the Padres, the veteran southpaw has pitched to a 4.20 ERA and 6.56 FIP, resulting in an ugly -0.2 fWAR. Those numbers would look even worse had Fernando Tatis Jr. not bailed him out with an epic grand slam robbery against the Mets his last time out.

This was always the risk in acquiring Ray, who is no longer capable of overpowering hitters like he once used to. Now, he's a pitch-to-contact savant who thrives in pitcher-friendly ballparks that allow him to coax fly balls out of opposing hitters. With some luck and patience, he should be able to settle in atop the Friars' rotation, though it'd be nice if he could reverse the trends of his strikeout (15.2%) and walk (16.7%) rates.

Perhaps the part of that trade we should really be concerned about is the talent the Padres sent out.

Padres may have paid too high a price for Robbie Ray at trade deadline

Parting ways with Miguel Mendez was a frustrating conclusion to his tenure in the organization, as he possessed so much promise just one year ago. His efforts in 2025 were so enticing that the team added him to the 40-man roster in order to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, despite the fact that he had barely thrown 20 innings at Double-A at that point.

Unfortunately, a shoulder injury sapped a lot of juice from his prospect stock this year; whereas some fans were hopeful that he could make his MLB debut this season, Mendez has rarely pitched, accumulating a 4.93 ERA over 11 starts in Double-A this year. However, he was recently activated from the injured list, and his 3.20 FIP might be more indicative of the bright future that now awaits him in San Francisco.

But while Mendez is a quality pitching prospect, it's Joniel Hernandez who could turn this trade into an all-time bust for A.J. Preller. There was some shock that the Padres were willing to part with him just months after giving him a $1.4 million signing bonus, but it's hard to pearl-clutch 17-year-old lottery tickets at the trade deadline.

Unfortunately, pearl clutching appears to be exactly the route they should have taken with Hernandez. He's only 10 games into his Giants tenure in the Dominican Summer League, but he's already hit three homers and stolen four bases; combined with his output with the Padres' DSL team, he's hitting a robust .321/.439/.539 (132 wRC+) in his pro debut this year.

Obviously, if Ray rediscovers the form he showed in San Francisco and propels the Padres to a deep playoff run, it won't really matter what Mendez and Hernandez do. But as far as early returns on a trade goes, this one isn't aging terribly well for Preller and company.

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