Padres power rankings surge raises big question about San Diego’s soft early schedule

The Padres have done exactly what good teams are supposed to do when the schedule opens up with some breathing room: they have taken the wins, climbed the standings, and forced their way into the top tier of the early conversation. San Diego entered April 20 at 15-7, tied to one of the best records in baseball, and MLB.com’s latest power rankings bumped them all the way up to No. 3. That’s what happens when a team keeps stacking series wins and keeps making late innings feel unfair because Mason Miller exists.

As impressive as the Padres have looked, it’s also fair to look at the schedule and wonder how much of this surge has been built on favorable early conditions. ESPN’s current strength-of-schedule page has San Diego twentieth in MLB, which backs up what the eye test has already been telling us. The Padres have banked wins, yes, but they have not exactly had to spend the first three weeks surviving a gauntlet. In fact, the Pirates are the only team San Diego has beaten in a series that currently owns a winning record.  

Padres’ red-hot April is making one uncomfortable question harder to ignore

That does not make this a hollow start for the Padres. It just means there’s context. There is a difference between a hot team and a fully vetted one. Right now, San Diego looks like a dangerous team that has taken advantage of a soft runway, which is exactly what serious contenders are supposed to do. Bad teams fumble those opportunities. And mediocre teams split those series. The Padres haven’t done that. 

Still, we are not crazy for looking at this 15-7 start and wondering whether we actually know who these Padres are yet.

On paper, there are still reasons to squint a little. The roster still has spots that felt like question marks coming into the year. The rotation still feels more like it’s barely hanging on instead of an overwhelming machine. The lineup has been productive, but some of the larger structural concerns have not disappeared just because the win column looks healthy. What has happened instead is that Miller has become such a ridiculous eraser that he’s helping blur a lot of those edges. When the back end of games feels automatic, a team can look more complete than it really is.

That’s why the next stretch matters more than the power rankings do. The Diamondbacks and Cubs should offer a more useful test before the calendar flips, and May brings the Brewers and Dodgers, with a trip to Seattle tucked in between. That is the stretch that should tell us whether this team is simply hot or actually built to live in this tier for six months. And honestly, even Seattle doesn’t feel like the scary part right now after the way San Diego handled the Mariners at Petco. The Dodgers and Brewers are the bigger measuring sticks. Those are the series that should tell us whether this No. 3 ranking is a snapshot or something sturdier.  

For now, the Padres deserve credit without needing a parade. They have handled business. And there is nothing wrong with feasting on a soft opening schedule. In fact, that’s usually what separates serious teams from the ones that spend all summer regretting missed chances.

The only thing we probably should not do yet is pretend the question has already been answered.

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