Padres payroll restrictions could unleash A.J. Preller trade deadline chaos

A.J. Preller has never needed much encouragement to make baseball weird around the trade deadline. If he has a live playoff pulse and a Padres roster with an obvious hole, the phones will usually start ringing. This year, there’s a more combustible part of the equation. It’s not about who Preller wants. It’s about what he can spend.

Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that the prevailing belief around is that Preller will not be permitted to add much payroll. Pair that with a farm system that’s ranked last in baseball, and they’ve nearly exhausted the currencies teams traditionally use in July.

For Preller, it’s a minor inconvenience that could easily be paired with chaos. The Padres still need starting pitching. They could also use a left-handed bat, preferably one capable of playing left field. Their recent five-game winning streak has pulled them within 1 1/2 games of multiple National League wild-card spots.

The standings have made the decision for them. A straightforward sell-off would be ridiculous now. Standing pat would be a surrender disguised as financial discipline. They’ve somehow gone 5-0 while operating with what amounts to an 11-man bullpen. Even though it’s a fun emergency measure, it doesn’t exactly solve their rotation plan down the stretch.

The Padres have played their way into buyer territory, even without buyer resources.

A.J. Preller may have to subtract before the Padres can add

The easiest solution would be landing a starter whose current team agrees to cover most of the remaining salary. That’s easy…until that team asks for better prospects in exchange for eating the money.

That’s where San Diego’s depleted farm system becomes more than an abstract ranking. It directly limits what Preller can do.

Kevin Gausman will reportedly be owed $6.8 million after the deadline. Freddy Peralta will be owed $2.4 million. When the difference between two starting-pitching targets comes down to whether a contender can absorb another $4.4 million, we’re discussing financial handcuffs.

The Padres are also in the middle of a sale. Only baseball could produce a franchise worth nearly $4 billion that has to squint at the remaining salary on a rental starter. This is where established major leaguers could land on the outgoing side of a Padres trade.

Adrian Morejon and Ty France are both impending free agents, making them obvious trade chips. The problem is that neither is expendable. France, in particular, has been one of the Padres’ most productive bats this season.

Mason Miller should require an absurd return. But that’s just not worth it. And Michael King is the only dependable piece holding the current rotation together.

Every appealing trade chip is somebody the Padres need. That won’t stop Preller from exploring the possibilities. It will just push him toward more complicated ones.

The cleanest path may involve turning an impending free agent into prospects and immediately rerouting those prospects for a starter or controllable left-handed bat. A three-team construction could help divide the money and talent more conveniently. Salary retention, prospect flipping and major-league pieces changing hands all belong on the table.

But we should stop expecting this deadline to look clean. Ownership deserves criticism if financial restrictions prevent the Padres from properly supporting a playoff contender on the way out the door. Preller doesn’t get to claim innocent bystander status, though.

He built this expensive roster. He traded much of the organizational depth. Now tomorrow’s bill has arrived while the Padres are still trying to win today.

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