Padres odds to win NL West after clinching postseason berth

The San Diego Padres have reached one of their goals in clinching a postseason berth. Petco Park had plenty of reasons to celebrate after the team sealed the deal with a dramatic win over the Milwaukee Brewers in extra innings, a night that felt as much like a statement as it did a reward for a season filled with ups and downs.

Still, there’s another prize technically on the table: the National League West crown. It’s a pursuit that has eluded San Diego for over a decade, as the Dodgers have seemingly had the division on lock year after year. This season, however, the gap has narrowed. The Padres sit just 2.5 games back with five left to play. Fangraphs pegs their chances at just 2.1 percent — essentially a lottery ticket, but the possibility itself injects an extra layer of intrigue into the final week of the regular season. After clinching their playoff spot, the question becomes: do the Padres have one last push in them to make this race uncomfortable for Los Angeles?

Can the Padres catch the Dodgers? Odds say no, but final week looms large

For the Padres, the math is simple but daunting. They’ll need to finish the season strong while hoping the Dodgers stumble. The final stretch of the schedule offers no easy outs on either side. San Diego gets the benefit of playing at home — first against the Brewers, then in a critical closing series versus division rival Arizona Diamondbacks. Meanwhile, the Dodgers embark on six straight games on the road, beginning with a three-game showdown in Arizona before heading to Seattle to face the red-hot Mariners, the team that has dominated September headlines. With Los Angeles posting a 36-39 record away from Chavez Ravine this season, the door remains cracked open.

The reality, though, is that the Dodgers hold the decisive tiebreaker after winning nine of the 13 head-to-head matchups this year. For San Diego to leapfrog them, the standings must be clear — there’s no winning this division on a tie. And while the Padres have momentum, there’s an understandable fear of a letdown after the champagne and tequila-soaked celebration that came with clinching a postseason berth on September 22. Can the same hungry, desperate club show up the next day against the Brewers? That’s the kind of intangible factor that makes this stretch unpredictable.

Even if the Padres somehow pull off the unthinkable, it’s important to note that the impact on their playoff path may be minimal. Winning the NL West would earn them bragging rights, something the franchise and fanbase crave given how long the Dodgers have owned the crown. But thanks to the new playoff structure, they’ll still begin in the Wild Card round regardless. In that sense, the chase for the division is as much about pride as it is about strategy. Padres fans would love nothing more than to see their team storm into October with the division banner in tow, but the front office and coaching staff may ultimately prioritize rest, health, and lining up the rotation over a frantic sprint to the finish line.

For now, the takeaway is simple: the Padres have done enough to punch their ticket, and that in itself is an achievement worth celebrating. Whether they climb the mountain to steal the division or simply enter October as one of the most dangerous Wild Card teams, San Diego is where every contender wants to be — playing meaningful baseball with a shot to rewrite the franchise’s story. The odds might not favor them in the division chase, but if this season has proven anything, it’s that the Padres aren’t afraid of long odds.

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